| 成渝地区双城经济圈降碳减污协同：时空格局、区域差异和动态演进 |
| 摘要点击 569 全文点击 9 投稿时间：2025-05-30 修订日期：2025-09-25 |
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| 中文关键词 降碳减污协同 成渝地区双城经济圈 时空格局 区域差异 动态演进 |
| 英文关键词 carbon reduction and pollution control synergy Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle spatiotemporal patterns regional disparities dynamic evolution |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202505356 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 在“双碳”战略背景下，为系统分析成渝地区双城经济圈降碳减污协同效应的时空格局、区域差异及动态演进特征，以2000~2022年144个区县面板数据为基础，综合运用耦合协调模型、标准差椭圆、空间自相关分析、Dagum基尼系数分解以及传统与空间马尔可夫链模型等方法进行实证研究. 结果表明：①协同效应呈现“快速提升-高位波动-分化调整”的阶段性演进，其耦合协调度从0.256升至峰值0.323后回落至0.262，空间自相关性显著（Moran's I > 0.556），高值区集中于成都平原及重庆主城区. ②整体Dagum基尼系数均值为0.214，区域内差异贡献率超过60%，其中重庆侧的不均衡性高于四川侧. ③动态演进分析揭示，协同效应的分布由单峰演变为双峰，并呈现显著的“状态稳定性”，维持原有状态的概率最低为86.1%. 空间邻域的存在强化了“状态锁定”现象，使得高、低协同水平区域的向上跃迁均难度较大，整体演化表现为渐进式、稳定的过程. 成渝地区双城经济圈的降碳减污协同效应存在显著的时空分异与极化趋势，并呈现稳定的渐进式演化特征，研究为该区域的绿色转型提供了理论与实践依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Under the “dual carbon” strategy， this study systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal patterns， regional disparities， and dynamic evolution of the synergy between carbon reduction and pollution control in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle. Based on panel data of 144 districts and counties from 2000 to 2022， empirical research was conducted using methods such as the coupling coordination model， standard deviational ellipse （SDE）， spatial autocorrelation analysis， Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition， and both traditional and spatial Markov chain models. The results show that： ① The synergistic effect demonstrated a phased evolution of “rapid improvement-high-level fluctuation-differentiation adjustment.” The coupling coordination degree rose from 0.256 to a peak of 0.323 before falling back to 0.262. The spatial autocorrelation was significant （Moran's I > 0.556）， with high-value areas concentrated in the Chengdu Plain and the main urban area of Chongqing. ② The average Dagum Gini coefficient was 0.214， and the contribution of intra-regional disparities exceeded 60%， with the imbalance being higher on the Chongqing side than on the Sichuan side. ③ Dynamic evolution analysis revealed that the distribution of synergistic effects had evolved from a single peak to a double peak. The synergy exhibited significant “state stability” （the minimum probability of maintaining the original state was 86.1%） and a “state locking” effect influenced by spatial neighborhoods. This resulted in limited upward transition possibilities and made “leapfrog” jumps difficult， indicating a gradual and stable evolutionary process. The synergy of carbon reduction and pollution control in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle exhibited significant spatiotemporal differentiation and polarization trends and demonstrated a stable， progressive evolutionary characteristic， providing a theoretical and practical basis for the region's green transition. |
