| “双碳”愿景下山西省减污降碳协同效应评估及情景预测 |
| 摘要点击 541 全文点击 17 投稿时间：2025-07-05 修订日期：2025-09-15 |
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| 中文关键词 LEAP模型 减污降碳 能源消费 情景预测 驱动因素 |
| 英文关键词 LEAP model reducing pollution and carbon emissions energy consumption scenario prediction driving factors |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202507070 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 山西省作为典型资源型省份和重要能源基地，正面临高碳排放和空气污染问题，亟需推动减污降碳协同治理. 基于低排放分析平台（LEAP）以能源消费为边界建模，以2020年为基准年，预测2021~2060年3种情景（基准、低碳和中和情景）下的能源消费、温室气体与大气污染物排放量，并将2021~2023年预测CO2排放量与实际能源消费CO2排放量进行交叉验证以验证模型精度，在此基础上使用脱钩分析法、减污降碳协同弹性系数和LMDI模型量化评估协同效应及驱动机制. 结果表明，基准情景无法实现碳达峰目标且大气污染物持续增排至2045年左右，低碳与中和情景分别在2029年（534.78×106 t）和2025（492.45×106 t）实现碳达峰，且中和情景2060年温室气体排放量降至200×106 t以下，其大气污染物排放于2030年前后进入阶梯式下降阶段，温室气体与大气污染物在排放上具有相关性，在减排上具有协同性；相较基准情景，两种优化情景可使大气污染物排放提前15~20 a进入协同减排阶段，且以偏温室气体协同为主导；驱动因素分析显示经济发展是最强正向因素，最大贡献率904.98%，能源利用和能源强度是关键抑制因素；针对“双碳”目标的控制措施有助于协同治理，产业转型、更严格的环保政策和控制措施、能源消费结构优化等措施有助于山西省早日实现碳减排与清洁空气目标. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Shanxi Province is a typical resource-based region and a major energy hub in China. Facing critical challenges of high carbon emissions and air pollution， this province urgently needs to advance synergistic control of pollution-carbon reduction. Utilizing the low emissions analysis platform （LEAP） with energy consumption as the system boundary and 2020 as the base year， this study predicts energy consumption， greenhouse gas （GHG）， and air pollutant emissions from 2021 to 2060 under three scenarios： baseline， low-carbon， and carbon neutrality. The predicted CO2 emissions for 2021-2023 were cross-validated against the actual CO2 emissions from energy consumption to verify the accuracy of the model. Subsequently， based on these predictions， it employed decoupling analysis， the synergy elasticity coefficient of pollution-carbon reduction， and the LMDI model to quantitatively assess synergistic effects and driving mechanisms. The results indicate that the baseline scenario failed to achieve the carbon peak target， with air pollutant emissions projected to increase until approximately 2045. In contrast， the low-carbon and carbon neutrality scenarios would achieve carbon peaking in 2029 （534.78 ×106 t） and 2025 （492.45×106 t）， respectively. Under the carbon neutrality scenario， GHG emissions were projected to drop below 200 ×106 t by 2060， and atmospheric pollutant emissions would begin a sustained decline around 2030. GHG and air pollutant emissions exhibited correlated emission patterns and synergistic mitigation potential； compared to the baseline scenario， both optimized scenarios advanced synergistic control by 15-20 years， characterized by GHG-dominant synergy. Analysis of driving factors identified economic development as the primary driver （contributing 904.98%）， while energy structure optimization and energy intensity reduction were key constraints. Control measures aligned with dual-carbon objectives effectively facilitated synergistic governance. Industrial transformation， stricter environmental policies and controls， and optimization of the energy consumption structure will enable Shanxi Province to achieve carbon reduction and air quality improvement targets sooner. |
