| 工业用地扩张对减污降碳协同的影响及空间溢出效应：以中国七大城市群为例 |
| 摘要点击 548 全文点击 11 投稿时间：2025-05-29 修订日期：2025-09-12 |
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| 中文关键词 工业用地扩张 减污降碳协同 城市群 空间溢出效应 时空地理加权回归（GTWR） |
| 英文关键词 industrial land expansion pollution and carbon emission reduction urban agglomerations spatial spillover effects geographically and temporally weighted regression（GTWR） |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202505336 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 工业化进程与生态环境保护之间的矛盾是当前推进减污降碳协同治理面临的重大挑战，城市群作为社会经济活动高度聚集区域，探讨不同城市群的工业用地扩张对减污降碳协同的影响，可为提高城市群土地利用效率和制定减污降碳策略提供参考. 基于2008~2022年中国7个城市群130个地级市面板数据，借助时空地理加权回归模型和空间滞后模型探究工业用地扩张对减污降碳协同的时空影响及空间溢出效应. 结果表明：①城市群工业用地扩张程度呈“先增后减再增”的波动增长趋势. 长三角城市群扩张幅度最大，北部湾城市群扩张幅度最小. ②城市群减污降碳协同水平总体呈提升趋势，2017年之前各城市群减污降碳协同以负值为主，2017年及以后各城市群先后趋于减污降碳协同. ③工业用地扩张对减污降碳协同的负影响呈逐渐减弱趋势. 京津冀城市群的抑制作用最强，珠三角城市群和北部湾城市群的抑制作用最弱. ④工业用地扩张对减污降碳协同的影响存在显著的负向空间溢出效应，工业用地扩张程度越大的城市群空间溢出效应越明显. 因此，重视工业用地扩张对减污降碳协同的抑制作用，可为推进减污降碳协同治理进程提出针对性建议. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The contradiction between industrialization and ecological environmental protection constitutes a major challenge in advancing the synergy of pollution and carbon emission reduction. As an area with a high concentration of socio-economic activities， urban agglomerations explore the impact of industrial land expansion in different urban agglomerations on the synergy of pollution and carbon emission reduction， which provides a reference for improving the land use efficiency of urban agglomerations and formulating strategies for pollution and carbon emission reduction. Using panel data for 130 prefecture-level cities across seven Chinese urban agglomerations from 2008 to 2022， this study employs geographically and temporally weighted regression （GTWR） and spatial lag models （SLM） to analyze spatiotemporal impacts and spatial spillover effects. The results indicated： ① Industrial land expansion followed fluctuating "increase-decrease-reincrease" trends. The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration exhibited the largest expansion， while the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration showed the smallest. ② The overall level of synergy in pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction across urban agglomerations presented an upward trend. Before 2017， the coordination in most urban agglomerations was predominantly negative； after 2017， urban agglomerations gradually moved towards positive synergy in pollution and carbon emission reduction. ③ The negative impact of industrial land expansion on the synergy of pollution and carbon emission reduction gradually weakened. The inhibitory effect was the strongest in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration， while it was the weakest in the Pearl River Delta and Beibu Gulf urban agglomerations. ④ There was a significant negative spatial spillover effect of the impact of industrial land expansion on the synergy of pollution and carbon emission reduction， and the spatial spillover effect was more obvious in the urban agglomerations with a higher degree of industrial land expansion. Therefore， the inhibitory role of industrial land expansion on the synergy of pollution and carbon emission reduction should be given due attention， and targeted recommendations should be formulated to advance coordinated pollution reduction and carbon mitigation in urban agglomerations. |
