| 山地丘陵区土地利用变化对碳排放的影响及分区调控策略：以重庆市为例 |
| 摘要点击 646 全文点击 16 投稿时间：2025-06-07 修订日期：2025-09-25 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用变化 碳排放 情景模拟 分区调控 重庆市 |
| 英文关键词 land use change carbon emissions scenario simulation zoning regulation Chongqing City |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202506077 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 土地利用变化是仅次于能源消费的全球第二大碳源，对陆地生态系统功能和气候变化具有重要影响. 探究土地利用变化对碳排放的影响，对探寻碳减排或碳中和实现路径至关重要. 基于此，以山地丘陵区重庆市为研究案例，利用2000~2020年土地利用数据，运用PLUS模型等方法，探究了研究区土地利用变化对碳排放的影响，并基于未来多情景预测结果提出了碳减排分区调控策略. 结果表明：①2000~2020年研究区土地利用类型以耕地、林地为主，其结构变化呈现“耕草两减其余均增”、空间上表现为“主城都市区和渝东南区变化剧烈渝东北区缓和”的特征，多情景模拟到2030年土地利用变化也具有类似特征. ②受低排碳地类向高排碳地类转变的影响，2000~2020年研究区净碳排放量由1 318.94万t升至5 272.59万t，总体上各区县碳排放等级普遍上升，尤以主城区的渝北区、九龙坡区和沙坪坝区为甚. 不同情景模拟显示，到2030年土地利用变化对碳排放的影响将呈增加（自然发展和城镇建设情景）或减少（生态保护情景）的不同结果. ③基于土地利用变化对碳排放影响特征的“减碳转型提升区”、“减碳增汇优化区”、“低碳发展示范区”和“低碳优势巩固区”研究区分类分区管控策略，可为土地利用低碳转型提供有效的路径. |
| 英文摘要 |
| As the world's second-largest carbon source after energy consumption， land use change profoundly affects terrestrial ecosystems and climate patterns. Understanding its carbon emission impacts is vital for achieving carbon reduction and neutrality goals. To this end， the mountainous megacity of Chongqing was selected as a case for investigation. Utilizing land use data from 2000-2020， an analysis employing the PLUS model was conducted to examine historical impacts and forecast future trends. Based on multi-scenario projections， spatially differentiated carbon reduction strategies are proposed. The results indicate： ① Between 2000 and 2020， Chongqing's landscape was dominated by cropland and forestland. Structural shifts involved decreases in cropland and grassland， while other land types expanded. Spatially， these changes were concentrated in the main urban core and the southeast， with less intensity in the northeast， a pattern projected to continue to 2030. ② Driven by the conversion of low-carbon to high-carbon land uses， net carbon emissions soared from 13.19 to 52.73 million tons from 2000 to 2020. Emission levels escalated across most districts， especially in the urban centers of Yubei， Jiulongpo， and Shapingba. Projections for 2030 indicate that land use change will increase emissions under the natural development and urban construction scenarios but decrease them under an ecological protection scenario. ③ A zoned management framework， dividing the region into four distinct zones—carbon reduction transition， emission reduction and sink enhancement， low-carbon development demonstration， and low-carbon advantage consolidation—offers a viable pathway toward a low-carbon transition in land use management. |
