| 新质生产力对长三角城市碳排放的影响机制 |
| 摘要点击 721 全文点击 25 投稿时间：2025-04-01 修订日期：2025-09-03 |
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| 中文关键词 新质生产力 城市碳排放 基准回归 中介效应 调节效应 |
| 英文关键词 new quality productive forces urban carbon emissions baseline regression mediating effect moderating effect |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202504011 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 新质生产力是实现“双碳”目标的重要动力，能源消费结构优化与产业结构合理化是实现“双碳”目标的重要路径. 研究基于2012~2022年长三角城市群41个地级市的面板数据，采用熵值法测算其新质生产力水平，选用双固定模型考察新质生产力对城市碳排放水平的影响效应与作用机制. 结果表明：①新质生产力能够显著降低城市碳排放水平. 异质性分析表明，新质生产力在中小城市、中低经济发展水平城市、资源型城市中对碳排放的抑制作用更显著. ②新质生产力的发展对能源消费结构、产业结构合理化产生影响，并能够通过能源消费结构优化、产业结构合理化降低城市碳排放水平. ③在新质生产力影响城市碳排放的过程中，政府干预削弱了新质生产力对城市碳排放的作用，环境规制增强了新质生产力对城市碳排放的作用. |
| 英文摘要 |
| New quality productive forces serve as a crucial driver for achieving the dual carbon goals， while optimization of energy consumption structure and industrial structure rationalization are key pathways toward these goals. This study utilizes panel data from 41 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration spanning from 2012 to 2022 and employs the entropy weight method to measure the level of new-quality productive forces. A two-way fixed effects model is adopted to examine the impact and mechanism of new-quality productive forces on urban carbon emissions. The findings are as follows： ① New quality productive forces significantly reduced urban carbon emissions. Heterogeneity analysis showed that the carbon-reducing effect was more pronounced in small and medium-sized cities， cities with lower levels of economic development， and resource-based cities. ② The development of new quality productive forces affected both the energy consumption structure and the rationalization of the industrial structure， thereby reducing urban carbon emissions through optimizing energy use and promoting industrial transformation. ③ In the process by which new quality productive forces influenced urban carbon emissions， government intervention weakened， while environmental regulation strengthened， their emission-reduction effects. |
