| 中国省级碳排放与经济增长脱钩效应的时空演进特征及驱动因素 |
| 摘要点击 937 全文点击 45 投稿时间：2025-06-05 修订日期：2025-09-17 |
| 查看HTML全文
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 中文关键词 碳脱钩效应 时空演进 Tapio脱钩模型 LMDI分解 区域差异 能源强度 |
| 英文关键词 carbon decoupling effect spatiotemporal evolution Tapio decoupling model LMDI decomposition regional differences energy intensity |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202506043 |
|
| 中文摘要 |
| 在区域发展失衡使“双碳”目标协同推进面临严峻挑战的背景下，探究中国省级碳排放与经济增长脱钩效应的时空演进特征及驱动因素具有关键科学意义. 基于2003~2022年30个省域的面板数据，综合运用Tapio脱钩模型、探索性时空数据分析（ESTDA）以及LMDI分解模型，系统解析其时空演进特征与影响因素. 结果表明：①碳脱钩状态呈现显著的“东部领跑、中西部追赶”区域梯度格局；②省域碳脱钩效应呈现显著的空间依赖性，表现为83.3%的省域存在路径锁定特征，且邻近省域间形成突出的空间俱乐部趋同效应；③经济增长是碳排放增长的最核心正向驱动因素，东、中和西部累计贡献为531 843 t，能源强度降低是最主要负向抑制因素，东、中和西部累计贡献为-320 516 t. 碳排放强度在东部转为显著负向抑制，而在中、西部呈波动性正向驱动，产业结构优化的抑制作用主要在东部后期显现，其与人口规模对碳排放的影响均呈现显著区域异质性；④脱钩努力程度呈现阶段性演进和区域梯度分化；能源强度改善是推动脱钩的唯一持续正向因素. 研究可为制定精准化、协同化的区域减排策略提供重要的科学依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| In the context of unbalanced regional development posing severe challenges to the coordinated advancement of the “dual carbon” goals， it is of critical scientific significance to explore the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of carbon emission and economic growth decoupling at the provincial level in China. Based on panel data from 30 provincial regions from 2003 to 2022， this study systematically analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors by integrating the Tapio decoupling model， exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis （ESTDA）， and LMDI decomposition model. The results show： ① The carbon decoupling status exhibited a significant regional gradient pattern of “eastern leading， central and western regions catching up.” ② The carbon decoupling effect in provinces showed significant spatial dependence， with 83.3% of provinces exhibiting path dependence characteristics， and a prominent spatial club convergence effect forming between neighboring provinces. ③ Economic growth was the most essential positive driving factor for the increase in carbon emissions， with a cumulative contribution of 531 843 tons from the east， central， and western regions. The reduction of energy intensity was the primary negative inhibiting factor， with a cumulative contribution of -320 516 tons from the east， central， and western regions. Carbon emission intensity had turned into a significant negative suppression in the eastern region， while showing fluctuating positive driving in the central and western regions. The suppressive effect of industrial structure optimization primarily appeared in the later stage in the eastern region， and its impact on carbon emissions， along with population size， showed significant regional heterogeneity. ④ The efforts towards decoupling showed phase evolution and regional gradient differentiation； improvements in energy intensity were the only continuous positive factor promoting decoupling. This research provides important scientific evidence for formulating precise and coordinated regional emission reduction strategies. |
