| 沂河流域多情景土地利用变化与碳储量模拟 |
| 摘要点击 738 全文点击 32 投稿时间：2025-05-30 修订日期：2025-09-04 |
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| 中文关键词 碳储量 土地利用变化 InVEST模型 PLUS模型 地理探测器 沂河流域 |
| 英文关键词 carbon storage land use change InVEST model PLUS model Geodetector Yihe River Basin |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202505355 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 土地利用变化是影响陆地生态系统碳储量的重要因素，深入探究土地利用变化对陆地生态系统碳储量的内在影响机制，对于科学优化土地利用结构、助力碳达峰碳中和目标顺利达成具有至关重要的意义. 基于1980~2020年沂河流域土地利用数据，借助PLUS模型对2030年自然发展情景、耕地保护情景、城镇发展情景和生态保护情景下的土地利用变化进行模拟，通过InVEST模型对1980~2020年和2030年不同情景下的碳储量开展评估，并利用地理探测器探讨了碳储量空间分异的驱动因子. 结果表明：①1980~2020年沂河流域耕地面积减少最多，建设用地面积增加最多. 耕地和草地、耕地和建设用地互转是主要的转换类型. 2030年不同情景下耕地面积不断减少，建设用地面积不断扩张. ②1980~2020年沂河流域碳储量总体呈减少趋势. 2030年不同情景下碳储量均有不同程度的下降，其中耕地保护情景下碳储量下降幅度最小，城镇发展情景下碳储量下降幅度最大. 碳储量空间分布与土地利用类型的空间分布大体一致. ③不同土地利用类型的转换对碳储量变化有显著影响，其中耕地转化为建设用地对碳储量影响最为明显. ④1980~2020年沂河流域碳储量空间分异的主导因子是土地利用类型，其次为高程和NDVI. 各驱动因子以非线性增强和双因子增强为主. 研究结果可为沂河流域优化配置土地资源、推动区域实现可持续发展提供科学参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Land use change stands as a pivotal element influencing the carbon storage capacity of terrestrial ecosystems. Conducting a thorough investigation into the inherent influencing mechanism through which land use change impacts the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems holds paramount importance for the rational planning of land use patterns and the effective realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality objectives. Leveraging land use data of the Yihe River Basin spanning the period from 1980 to 2020， this study employed the PLUS model to simulate land use change across four scenarios， namely natural development， cultivated protection， urban development， and ecological protection. Subsequently， the InVEST model was applied to evaluate carbon storage under various scenarios from 1980 to 2020 and for the year 2030. Additionally， the Geodetector was adopted to identify and analyze the driving forces behind the spatial variability of carbon storage. The results show that： ① From 1980 to 2020， the Yihe River Basin witnessed the largest reduction in cultivated land area and the greatest increase in construction land area. The predominant forms of land transformation primarily occurred between cultivated land and grassland， as well as between cultivated land and construction land. Under different scenarios in 2030， the acreage of cultivated land is projected to persist in its declining trend， whereas the area allocated to construction land is anticipated to maintain a continuous expansion. ② Over the period spanning from 1980 to 2020， the carbon storage within the Yihe River Basin exhibited a general downward trend. Carbon storage in 2030 will decline to different degrees under different scenarios， with the smallest decline under the cultivated land protection scenario and the largest decline under the urban development scenario. In general， the spatial distribution of carbon storage aligned closely with the spatial distribution of land use types. ③ The conversion of different land use types had a significant impact on carbon storage changes， among which the transformation of cultivated land into construction land had the most obvious effect on carbon storage. ④ The dominant factor influencing the spatial differentiation of carbon storage in the Yihe River Basin from 1980 to 2020 was land use type， followed by elevation and NDVI. The driving factors mainly exhibited nonlinear enhancement and dual-factor enhancement. The research results can provide scientific references for optimizing the allocation of land resources in the Yihe River Basin and promoting the region's sustainable development. |
