| 黄河三角洲海岸带碳储量时空演变特征与驱动因素分析 |
| 摘要点击 812 全文点击 57 投稿时间：2025-07-01 修订日期：2025-09-08 |
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| 中文关键词 黄河三角洲 人类活动 碳储量 时空演变特征 驱动因素 |
| 英文关键词 Yellow River Delta anthropogenic activities carbon storage spatiotemporal dynamics driving forces |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202507008 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 探究海岸带碳储量变化及其驱动因素，对评估区域碳汇潜力、制定生态增汇策略具有重要意义. 以黄河三角洲海岸带为研究区域，基于2000~2023年黄河三角洲海岸带逐年土地利用/覆被（LULC）数据，综合运用线性回归、Theil-Sen趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验、变异系数、Hurst指数、土地利用转移矩阵与地理探测器模型，系统揭示了黄河三角洲海岸带碳储量的时空动态变化特征、LULC转型驱动效应及时空分异驱动机制. 结果表明：①2000~2023年，黄河三角洲海岸带碳储量由内陆向沿海递减，总量（以C计）净亏损约1.54 Tg，并呈高位波动-阶梯下降-低值平台的分阶段演变. ②碳储量整体上稳定性较高，80.69%区域保持稳定，但2.66%区域发生突变，同时碳失区占比为14.06%，未来16.26%区域将持续面临碳损失风险，仅5.25%区域将有望恢复. ③碳损失主要由人类活动驱动，围垦、城市化及养殖池与盐田的扩张是核心驱动路径. 土地利用强度和NDVI是两大核心驱动因子，其解释力随时间演变呈现出此消彼长的态势，所有因子交互作用呈现双因子和非线性增强. 单因子探测与交互探测结果均显示人类活动对碳储量时空分异具有显著地主导作用，并呈现出日益增强的趋势. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Exploring the changes of coastal carbon storage and its driving factors is of great significance for assessing regional carbon sink potential and formulating ecological sink enhancement strategies. Taking the coastal zone of the Yellow River Delta as the research area， based on the annual land use/cover （LULC） data of the coastal zone of the Yellow River Delta from 2000 to 2023， the linear regression， Theil-Sen trend analysis， Mann-Kendall test， coefficient of variation， Hurst index， land use transfer matrix， and geographical detector model were used to systematically reveal the spatial and temporal dynamic characteristics of carbon storage in the coastal zone of the Yellow River Delta， the driving effect of LULC transformation， and the driving mechanism of spatial and temporal differentiation. The results show that： ① From 2000 to 2023， the carbon storage in the coastal zone of the Yellow River Delta decreased from inland to coastal areas， with a total net loss of approximately 1.54 Tg （calculated by C）， and showed a phased evolution of high-level fluctuation-stepwise decline-low-value platform. ②The overall stability of carbon storage was high， 80.69 % of the region remained stable， but 2.66 % of the region had mutated， and the carbon loss area accounted for 14.06 %. In the future， 16.26 % of the region will continue to face the risk of carbon loss， and only 5.25 % of the region will be expected to recover. ③ Carbon loss was mainly driven by human activities， and reclamation， urbanization， and the expansion of aquaculture ponds and salt pans were the core driving paths. Land use intensity and NDVI were the two core driving factors， and their explanatory power changed with time. The interaction of all factors showed two-factor and non-linear enhancement. The results of single factor detection and interactive detection showed that human activities had a significant leading role in the spatial and temporal differentiation of carbon storage and showed an increasing trend. |
