| 新疆植被净初级生产力时空变化及其对气候变化和人类活动的响应 |
| 摘要点击 827 全文点击 44 投稿时间：2025-06-23 修订日期：2025-09-19 |
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| 中文关键词 净初级生产力（NPP） 人类活动 气候变化 残差分析 偏相关分析 |
| 英文关键词 net primary productivity（NPP） human activities climate change residual analysis partial correlation analysis |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202506270 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 在全球快速变化背景下，植被生产力对气候变化和人类活动的响应机制研究受到广泛关注. 然而，针对干旱生态脆弱地区的研究仍然不足. 加强这方面的研究对于深入理解干旱区生态系统的碳源与碳汇功能具有重要意义. 新疆作为中国典型干旱生态脆弱区之一，也是植被生产力显著变化区域. 基于长时序（2001~2022年）MODIS植被净初级生产力（NPP）数据，利用Theil-Sen Median趋势和Mann-Kendall检验、稳定性分析方法以及残差分析方法，分析了新疆植被NPP变化趋势及其对气候变化与人类活动的响应，之后，利用偏相关分析方法验证了残差分析方法的有效性. 结果表明，在2001~2022年期间，新疆植被NPP（以C计）以0.84 g·（m2·a）-1速率呈现显著增加趋势（P<0.05），NPP显著增加区域约占总植被面积的33.4%，主要分布在塔里木盆地周边绿洲地区、天山及阿尔泰山脉. 人类活动单因素的作用以及气候变化和人类活动的共同作用是引起新疆植被NPP增加的主要原因. 气候变化对植被NPP增加的影响较弱，其贡献率低于20%的影响范围占植被总面积的52.34%. 而在72.6%的新疆植被区，人类活动对NPP增加的贡献率超过60%. 偏相关分析结果验证了残差分析方法能够有效地分离出人类活动的影响. 结果表明人类活动对植被生产力的作用在新疆及类似的干旱区值得重视. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Amid rapid global changes， understanding how vegetation productivity responds to climate change and human activities has attracted considerable scientific interest. However， research focusing on arid and ecologically fragile regions remains limited. Advancing studies in this area is important for a deeper understanding of carbon source-sink dynamics in arid ecosystems. Xinjiang， as one of China’s typical arid and ecologically fragile regions， is also an area with significant changes in vegetation productivity. Using long-term （2001-2022） MODIS net primary productivity （NPP） data， this study applied Theil-Sen Median trend estimation， Mann-Kendall test， stability analysis， and residual analysis to assess vegetation NPP trends in Xinjiang and their responses to climate change and human activity. The validity of the residual method was further evaluated via partial correlation analysis. The results showed that from 2001 to 2022， vegetation NPP in Xinjiang （expressed in C） exhibited a significant increasing trend at a rate of 0.84 g·（m2·a）-1 （P<0.05）. Approximately 33.4% of the vegetated area exhibited significant increases， primarily located around oases in the Tarim Basin， as well as the Tianshan and Altai Mountains. The primary drivers of increased NPP in Xinjiang were either human activities alone or their combined effects with climate change. The impact of climate change on NPP growth was relatively minor， contributing less than 20% in areas covering 52.34% of the vegetated region. In contrast， in 72.6% of vegetated regions in Xinjiang， human activities contributed more than 60% to the NPP increase. Partial correlation results indicated that the residual method was effective in isolating the influence of anthropogenic activities. The findings highlight the significant role of human activities in enhancing vegetation productivity in Xinjiang and comparable arid ecosystems. |
