| 基于PLUS-InVEST-OPGD模型的宁夏回族自治区碳储量时空演变分析及预测 |
| 摘要点击 224 全文点击 8 投稿时间：2025-04-13 修订日期：2025-07-20 |
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| 中文关键词 宁夏回族自治区 土地利用 碳储量 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 最优地理探测器 |
| 英文关键词 Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region land use carbon storage PLUS model InVEST model optimal geographical detector |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202504166 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 全球变暖与极端天气频发背景下，减少碳排放成为国际焦点. 宁夏回族自治区作为西北重要生态屏障和能源基地，其未来不同发展情景下碳储量的时空变化趋势及空间分布差异的驱动因素，亟待厘清. 为此利用PLUS模型模拟预测宁夏回族自治区2040年自然发展、耕地保护、生态保护和城镇发展这4种情景下的土地利用格局，结合InVEST模型定量评估各时期及未来情景下的碳储量，并采用最优地理探测器模型解析影响宁夏回族自治区碳储量空间分布的主导因子及其交互作用. 结果表明：①1990~2020年，宁夏回族自治区草地面积明显减少（共减少2 751.56 km2，其中1990~2000年减少2 372.55 km2），建设用地持续扩张（1990~2000年、2000~2010年和2010~2020年分别扩张117.61、683.66和641.54 km2）. ②1990~2000年碳储量略微增加（增加0.778×106 t），之后持续下降. ③至2040年，4种发展情景下碳储量均低于2020年水平. 其中，生态保护情景碳储量减少量最小（减少4.057×106 t），城镇发展情景减少量最大. ④年降水量（单因子解释力最强）、DEM（高程）和年均气温是影响碳储量空间分布的主要自然因子. 双因子交互作用均表现为增强效应，其中NDVI（归一化植被指数）与DEM的交互作用解释力最强. 研究表明，宁夏回族自治区未来实施生态保护路径可最有效减缓碳储量损失，碳储量空间分异主要受年降水量主导，且DEM和NDVI的交互作用最强. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Against the backdrop of global warming and frequent extreme weather， reducing carbon emissions has become an international focus. As a crucial ecological barrier and energy base in Northwest China， the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region urgently needs clarification regarding the spatiotemporal trends of its carbon storage and the driving factors behind its spatial distribution differences under various future development scenarios. To address this， the PLUS model was employed to simulate and predict land use patterns in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region for 2040 under four scenarios： natural development， cultivated land protection， ecological protection， and urban development. Subsequently， the InVEST model was used to quantitatively assess carbon storage during historical periods and under these future scenarios. Furthermore， the optimal geographical detector model was applied to analyze the dominant factors influencing the spatial distribution of carbon storage in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and their interactive effects. The results indicate： ① Between 1990 and 2020， grassland area in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region significantly decreased （a total reduction of 2 751.56 km2， with 2 372.55 km2 occurring between 1990 and 2000）， while construction land continuously expanded （by 117.61， 683.66， and 641.54 km2 from 1990 to 2000， 2000 to 2010， and 2010 to 2020， respectively）. ② Carbon storage slightly increased from 1990 to 2000 （an increase of 0.778×106 t） and then continuously decreased thereafter. ③ By 2040， carbon storage under all four development scenarios was projected to be lower than the 2020 level. Among these， the ecological protection scenario showed the smallest reduction in carbon storage （a decrease of 4.057×106 t）， while the urban development scenario exhibited the largest reduction. ④ Annual precipitation （with the strongest single-factor explanatory power）， DEM （elevation）， and annual average temperature were the main natural factors affecting the spatial distribution of carbon storage. All two-factor interactions demonstrated an enhancing effect， with the interaction between normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） and DEM having the strongest explanatory power. This study suggests that implementing an ecological protection pathway in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in the future can most effectively mitigate carbon storage loss. The spatial differentiation of carbon storage was primarily dominated by annual precipitation， and the interaction between DEM and NDVI was the strongest. |
