| 天山北坡城市群生态系统服务供需匹配及其驱动因素 |
| 摘要点击 210 全文点击 1 投稿时间：2025-05-13 修订日期：2025-07-22 |
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| 中文关键词 生态系统服务（ESs） 供需匹配 InVEST模型 最优参数地理探测器模型 天山北坡城市群 |
| 英文关键词 ecosystem services（ESs） supply-demand matching InVEST model optimal parameters-based geographical detector Tianshan North Slope Urban Agglomeration |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202505119 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 在全球气候变化和人类活动的共同影响下，干旱半干旱地区的生态保护面临着严峻挑战. 识别生态系统服务供需格局和驱动因素对于区域可持续发展至关重要. 因此，采用InVEST模型、空间自相关和相关性分析，评估天山北坡城市群2000~2020年产水、生境质量、粮食生产、碳储量和土壤保持服务的供需匹配特征及供需相关性，并结合最优参数地理探测器，揭示供需比的影响因素. 结果表明：①生境质量服务供给量、需求量持续降低，其他4种服务呈现先升高后降低趋势；碳储量服务供需比盈余较多，其他4种服务呈现不同程度供需失衡. ②生境质量服务供需匹配以高供给低需求为主，其他4种服务供需匹配以低供给低需求为主. ③生态系统服务供给以协同关系为主，仅有生境质量与粮食生产服务为权衡关系；生态系统服务需求以权衡关系为主，粮食生产与产水服务、碳储量与产水服务以及碳储量与粮食生产服务显著协同，相关系数为1. ④产水服务供需比受人口密度和GDP交互作用影响，生境质量服务供需比受土地利用类型和DEM交互作用影响，粮食生产和碳储量服务供需比受人口密度与土地利用类型交互作用影响，土壤保持服务供需比受土地利用类型和坡度交互作用影响. 研究结果可为天山北坡城市群生态系统环境的管理和保护提供科学依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Under the combined pressures of global climate change and human activity， ecological conservation in arid and semi-arid regions faces mounting challenges. Understanding the patterns and driving forces behind the supply and demand of ecosystem services is essential for promoting sustainable regional development. Therefore， the InVEST model， spatial autocorrelation， and correlation analysis were employed to evaluate the supply-demand matching characteristics and correlations of water yield， habitat quality， grain production， carbon storage， and soil conservation services in the Tianshan North Slope Urban Agglomeration from 2000 to 2020. In combination with the optimal parameters-based geographical detector， the influencing factors of the supply-demand ratio were identified. The results show that： ① The supply and demand of habitat quality services have continuously declined， while the other four services experienced an initial increase followed by a decline. The supply-demand ratio for carbon storage services showed a significant surplus， whereas the other four services exhibited varying degrees of imbalance. ② The supply-demand matching of habitat quality services was mainly characterized by high supply and low demand， while that of the other four services was primarily characterized by low supply and low demand. ③ The supply of ecosystem services was mainly characterized by a synergistic relationship， with only habitat quality and grain production services showing a trade-off relationship. The demand for ecosystem services was mainly characterized by a trade-off relationship， with significant synergy between grain production and water yield services， carbon storage and water yield services， and carbon storage and grain production services， with a correlation coefficient of 1. ④ The supply-demand ratio of water yield service was influenced by the interaction between population density and GDP. The supply-demand ratio of habitat quality service was influenced by the interaction between land use/cover change and DEM. The supply-demand ratios of both grain production and carbon storage service were influenced by the interaction between population density and land use/cover change. The supply-demand ratio of soil conservation service was influenced by the interaction between land use/cover change and slope. The research results can serve as a scientific basis for the management and protection of the ecological environment in the Tianshan North Slope Urban Agglomeration. |
