| 长三角耕地生态系统服务权衡协同关系对影响因子的空间响应 |
| 摘要点击 250 全文点击 5 投稿时间：2025-04-23 修订日期：2025-07-29 |
| 查看HTML全文
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 中文关键词 生态系统服务（ESs） 耕地 权衡协同 地理加权逻辑回归（GWLR） 生产可能性边界（PPF） 分区优化 |
| 英文关键词 ecosystem services（ESs） cultivated land trade-off and synergy geographical weighted logistic regression（GWLR） production-possibility frontiers（PPF） partition optimization |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202504277 |
|
| 中文摘要 |
| 科学认知耕地生态系统服务间的权衡协同关系对于耕地保护和生态系统服务精细化管理具有重要意义. 通过InVEST和MaxEnt等模型量化了2000~2020年长三角4种典型耕地生态系统服务，采用差异比较法识别生态系统服务间的权衡与协同关系，运用地理加权逻辑回归模型揭示不同影响因素对权衡协同关系的影响，最后借助生产可能性边界对研究区耕地进行分区优化. 结果表明：①研究时段内，粮食生产呈“北高南低”的空间分布格局，碳固存与生境质量空间分布与粮食生产相反，娱乐游憩高值区逐步由长三角北部向中部和南部转移；2000~2020年间粮食生产显著增长33.97%，其他生态系统服务有不同程度轻微下降；②整体上，碳固存-粮食生产与生境质量-娱乐游憩表现为协同关系，其他生态系统服务间为权衡关系；生态系统服务间权衡协同关系具有明显的空间异质性；③生态系统服务权衡协同关系对降水主要呈显著负向响应，对城镇化率和人口密度主要呈现显著正向响应；④基于生态系统服务权衡强度将研究区耕地划分为脆弱区、单一主导权衡区、均衡发展区、协同发展区. 其中，脆弱区整体权衡强度较高，占研究区的24.92%，是未来生态修复和优化提升的重点区域. 研究旨在为长三角耕地精细化管理提供科学依据，为空间格局优化提供参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Scientifically understanding the trade-off and synergy relationship among ecosystem services of cultivated land is of great significance for cultivated land protection and the refined management of ecosystem services. This study quantified four typical cultivated land ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2020 through models such as InVEST and MaxEnt. The difference comparison method was adopted to identify the trade-off and synergy relationships among ecosystem services， and the geographical weighted logistic regression was used to reveal the influence of different influencing factors on the trade-off and synergy relationships. Finally， the cultivated land in the study area was zoned and optimized with the aid of the production-possibility frontiers. The results showed that： ① During the research period， grain production presented a spatial distribution pattern of “high in the north and low in the south，” while the spatial distribution of carbon sequestration and habitat quality was opposite to that of grain production. The high-value areas of recreation service gradually shifted from the northern part of the Yangtze River Delta to the central and southern parts. Between 2000 and 2020， grain production increased significantly by 33.97%， while other ecosystem services declined slightly to varying degrees. ② Overall， carbon sequestration-grain production and habitat quality-recreation service showed a synergistic relationship， while other ecosystem services showed a trade-off relationship. The trade-off and synergy relationship among ecosystem services had obvious spatial heterogeneity. ③ The synergy relationship of ecosystem service trade-off mainly showed a significant negative response to precipitation and mainly showed a significant positive response to the urbanization rate and population density. ④ Based on the trade-off intensity of ecosystem services， the cultivated land in the study area was divided into the vulnerable area， the single dominant trade-off area， the balanced development area， and the coordinated development area. Among them， the overall trade-off intensity of the vulnerable area was relatively high， accounting for 24.92% of the study area， and it is a key area for future ecological restoration and optimization improvement. This article aims to provide a scientific basis for the refined management of cultivated land in the Yangtze River Delta and offer a reference for the optimization of the spatial pattern. |
