| 长江经济带城市扩张模拟及生态系统服务的空间响应 |
| 摘要点击 208 全文点击 1 投稿时间：2025-05-12 修订日期：2025-07-18 |
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| 中文关键词 城市扩张 生态系统服务 PLUS模型 多情景模拟 长江经济带 |
| 英文关键词 urban expansion ecosystem services PLUS model multi-scenario simulation the Yangtze River Economic Belt |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202505106 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 在全球气候变化与快速城市化背景下，探究长江经济带多情景城市扩张过程及生态系统服务的空间响应及揭示两者相互作用机制，对未来该区域城市发展进程中协同经济增长与生态环境保护具有重要意义. 通过整合第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）气候模式与PLUS模型模拟可持续发展情景（SSP1-2.6）、中排放中强度开发情景（SSP2-4.5）和高排放高强度开发情景（SSP5-8.5）复合情景下的2050年长江经济带城市扩张路径，从城市扩张规模（UESI）、扩张强度（UEII）、扩张差异指数（UEDI）和景观扩张（LEI）指数多层面剖析城市扩张特征，运用InVEST模型量化生态系统服务，采取综合生态系统服务指数（CESI）核算综合生态系统服务值，通过地理加权回归模型揭示城市扩张与生态系统服务的空间响应关系. 结果发现：①2000~2020年长江经济带城市扩张呈“低速均衡-高速分化”阶段跃迁，下游呈“T型”核心区轴向蔓延、上游呈“点-轴”扩散，东西梯度差异显著；生态服务时空分异明显，综合生态系统服务指数（CESI）上升. ②2050年长江经济带城市扩张规模逐步进入稳态，SSP1-2.6下生态系统服务功能最佳，SSP5-8.5生态加剧退化，尤以中下游生态廊道破坏显著. ③城市扩张对生态系统服务功能变化的影响存在显著空间异质性，UEDI与UEII主导生态退化，长三角受高强度开发抑制，中上游因低效扩张驱动生态变化；UESI与LEI作用方向随情景演变分化. 总体而言，城市扩张与生态系统服务的响应存在显著阶段性与空间异质性，未来应基于SSP1-2.6情景优化多中心网络化开发模式，强化中下游生态廊道刚性管控与上游生态保育区建设. 研究结果可为流域尺度城市生态文明建设与高质量城市化提供理论依据与政策建议. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Under the dual context of global climate change and rapid urbanization， investigating the multi-scenario urban expansion processes of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the spatial response of ecosystem services， while revealing the interaction mechanisms， holds significant importance for coordinating economic growth with ecological environmental protection in the region's future urban development. By integrating coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 （CMIP6） climate models with the PLUS model to simulate sustainable development scenarios （SSP1-2.6）， medium emissions with medium intensity development scenarios （SSP2-4.5）， and high emissions with high intensity development scenarios （SSP5-8.5）， we analyze the urban expansion paths of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2050 from multiple perspectives. The research analyzes urban expansion characteristics through multi-dimensional indicators including the urban expansion discrepancy index （UEDI）， urban expansion speed index （UESI）， urban expansion intensity index （UEII）， and landscape expansion index （LEI）. The InVEST model is employed to quantify ecosystem services， while the comprehensive ecosystem services index （CESI） is adopted to calculate integrated ecosystem service values. The geographically weighted regression model is used to reveal the spatial response relationship between urban expansion and ecosystem services. The results show that： ① From 2000 to 2020， the urban expansion of the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a transition from “low-speed equilibrium to high-speed differentiation，” with the “T-shaped” core area spreading in the downstream and the “point-axis” diffusion in the upstream， and the east-west gradient difference was significant. The spatiotemporal differentiation of ecosystem services was obvious， and the comprehensive ecosystem service index （CESI） increased. ② In 2050， the scale of urban expansion in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will gradually enter a steady state， with the best ecosystem service function under SSP1-2.6， and the ecological degradation will be aggravated by SSP5-8.5， especially in the middle and lower reaches of the ecological corridor. ③ There was significant spatial heterogeneity in the impact of urban expansion on the change of ecosystem service functions， with UEDI and UEII leading ecological degradation and the Yangtze River Delta being inhibited by high-intensity development， and the middle and upper reaches were driven by inefficient expansion. The action directions of UESI and LEI diverged with the evolution of scenarios. In the future， the polycentric network development model should be optimized based on the SSP1-2.6 scenario， and the rigid control of the middle and lower reaches of the ecological corridor and the construction of the upstream ecological conservation area should be strengthened. The results of this study can provide a theoretical basis and policy recommendations for the construction of ecological civilization and high-quality urbanization in watershed-scale cities. |
