| 景观生态风险识别及影响因素分析：基于三大城市群的对比 |
| 摘要点击 228 全文点击 2 投稿时间：2025-04-07 修订日期：2025-07-16 |
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| 中文关键词 景观生态风险 城市群 空间异质性 影响因素分析 |
| 英文关键词 landscape ecological risk urban agglomeration spatial heterogeneity influencing factor analysis |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202504081 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 在全球化与城市化背景下，城市景观格局演变引发的生态风险呈现复合性与空间异质性特征，威胁生态系统服务与人类福祉. 采用景观脆弱指数和干扰指数，结合韧性理论构建城市景观生态风险指标体系，基于“社会-经济-自然”多维框架选取代表性因素，对比分析2013年、2018年和2023年京津冀、长三角和珠三角城市群景观生态风险时空演变及影响因素差异. 结果表明：①研究期内三大城市群65%以上区域为中高风险；时间上，中低风险区递增，高风险区域缩减；空间上，京津冀高风险区集中于山区（>33%），长三角高风险区分布于中部及东南沿海（>20%），珠三角高风险区全域广布（>32%）. ②2013~2023年全局影响差异：京津冀以自然因子主导，长三角以经济因素主导，珠三角呈自然-经济复合影响. ③2013~2023年局部影响差异：京津冀社会因素长期抑制风险，经济扩张加剧风险，山地-平原地区的自然影响存在差异；长三角自然因素影响的梯度效应显著，社会经济影响呈东西分异；珠三角社会经济因素受市场机制驱动抑制生态风险. ④城市景观生态风险遵循“自然条件奠定风险基础，经济活动驱动风险产生，社会因素调控风险演化”的复合逻辑，其空间异质性源于区域社会-经济-自然要素的非线性交互作用. 研究结果为识别城市群生态风险，建立统一的生态风险治理指导制度，以及如何差异化实施不同城市群风险治理提供了理论依据和政策建议. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Under globalization and rapid urbanization， evolving urban landscape patterns generate ecologically complex， spatially heterogeneous risks， threatening ecosystem services and human well-being. Using Landscape Fragility and Disturbance Indices within a resilience theory framework， this study establishes an Urban Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment System. A "Social-Economic-Natural" framework selected representative factors to comparatively analyze spatiotemporal evolution and drivers of ecological risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei （BTH）， Yangtze River Delta （YRD）， and Pearl River Delta （PRD） urban agglomerations from 2013 to 2023. The results show that： ① During the study period， over 65% of the three major urban agglomerations showed medium-high risk； temporally， low-medium risk areas increased while high-risk decreased， with spatially distinct concentrations： mountainous zones in BTH （>33%）， central/southeast coast in YRD （>20%）， and widespread distribution in PRD （>32%）. ② From 2013 to 2023， regional dominant drivers differed： primarily natural factors in BTH， economic drivers in the YRD， and dual natural-economic drivers in the PRD. ③ From 2013 to 2023， locally heterogeneous drivers were as follows： BTH showed persistent socioeconomic suppression versus expansion-induced intensification with mountain-plain natural contrasts； YRD exhibited natural gradients and east-west socioeconomic divergence； and PRD demonstrated market-driven risk suppression. ④ Urban landscape ecological risk developed through a compound logic chain： Natural endowments established risk foundations， economic activities drove risk generation， and social systems modulated risk evolution， with spatial heterogeneity originating from nonlinear socio-economic-natural interactions. This study provides theoretical foundations and actionable policy insights for identifying ecological risks in city clusters， establishing unified governance frameworks for risk mitigation， and tailoring differentiated management strategies to distinct megaregional landscape ecological risk profiles. |
