| 植被覆盖度与植被恢复力的时空演变特征分析及预测：以内蒙古生态修复工程为例 |
| 摘要点击 236 全文点击 7 投稿时间：2025-04-01 修订日期：2025-08-01 |
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| 中文关键词 核归一化植被指数（kNDVI） 植被覆盖度 植被恢复力 预测 生态修复 |
| 英文关键词 kernel normalized difference vegetation index（kNDVI） vegetation coverage vegetation resilience prediction ecological restoration |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202504012 |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 于晓燕 | 内蒙古科技大学经济与管理学院, 包头 014010
黄河“几字弯”发展研究基地, 包头 014010
内蒙古科技大学产业信息化与产业创新研究中心, 包头 014010 | Yu_Xiaoyan@imust.edu.cn | | 高雅娴 | 内蒙古科技大学经济与管理学院, 包头 014010
黄河“几字弯”发展研究基地, 包头 014010
内蒙古科技大学产业信息化与产业创新研究中心, 包头 014010 | | | 魏光普 | 内蒙古科技大学建筑与艺术设计学院, 包头 014010 | Wei_Guangpu@imust.edu.cn | | 周通 | 内蒙古科技大学经济与管理学院, 包头 014010
黄河“几字弯”发展研究基地, 包头 014010
内蒙古科技大学产业信息化与产业创新研究中心, 包头 014010 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 分析内蒙古植被的覆盖度和恢复力时空变化特征，探究二者时间序列的相关性，并预测2024~2026年植被恢复力的演变趋势. 基于卫星（MOD13Q1V6.1）构建的核归一化植被指数（kNDVI）数据集和早期预警指标，评估内蒙古2004~2023年的植被覆盖度和植被恢复力的时空变化；运用皮尔逊相关分析方法分析二者空间变化的相关性，并利用BP神经网络预测植被恢复力未来3 a的变化趋势. 结果表明：①2004~2023年内蒙古约85.63%的区域植被覆盖度呈现增加趋势，植被恢复力变化呈现东、中部上升、西部下降的空间分布格局. ②植被覆盖度和植被恢复力在时空变化上的趋势不完全一致，在生态修复工程中，仅追求覆盖度提升可能无法增强系统稳定性，更应关注植被恢复力的动态响应机制. ③未来3 a内蒙古植被恢复力的总体呈现上升趋势，主要集中在内蒙古中东部的阴山山脉、科尔沁沙地及大兴安岭等地区的生态修复工程，但西部等局部地区的生态修复工程植被恢复力下降问题仍需关注. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The aim of this study was to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of vegetation coverage and resilience in Inner Mongolia， to explore the correlation between the two time series， and to predict the evolutionary trend of vegetation resilience from 2024 to 2026. Based on the kernel normalized vegetation index （kNDVI） dataset constructed by satellite （MOD13Q1V6.1） and early warning indicators， the spatial and temporal changes of vegetation coverage and vegetation resilience are assessed from 2004 to 2023 in Inner Mongolia. The correlation between the spatial changes of the vegetation coverage and vegetation resilience is analyzed using Pearson's correlation analysis， and the evolutionary trend of vegetation resilience in the next three years is predicted by the BP neural network. The results show that： ① From 2004 to 2023， approximately 85.63% of the vegetation coverage in Inner Mongolia showed an increasing trend， and the changes in vegetation resilience showed a spatial distribution pattern of increasing in the east and central part of Inner Mongolia and decreasing in the western part. ② The trends of vegetation coverage and vegetation resilience in spatial and temporal changes were not completely consistent. In the ecological restoration project， only pursuing the increase of cover may not be able to enhance the stability of the system， and more attention should be paid to the dynamic response mechanism of vegetation resilience. ③ In the next three years， the overall trend of vegetation resilience in Inner Mongolia will be upward， mainly focusing on the ecological restoration projects in the Yinshan Mountains， Horqin Sands， and Daxing’anling Mountains， but the problem of declining vegetation resilience in the ecological restoration projects in the western parts of the country and other local areas still requires further attention. |
