| 组态视角下黄河流域“四水”协同的优化路径选择 |
| 摘要点击 228 全文点击 9 投稿时间：2025-05-29 修订日期：2025-08-01 |
| 查看HTML全文
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 中文关键词 黄河流域 组态 协同 哈肯模型 TOE框架 |
| 英文关键词 Yellow River Basin configuration synergy Haken model technology-organization-environment （TOE） framework |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202505340 |
|
| 中文摘要 |
| 基于复合系统发展协同演化理论，构建TOE（技术-组织-环境）框架，选取2014~2023年黄河流域60个地级市作为研究对象. 通过熵权-TOPSIS法测度各市“四水”发展水平，并运用哈肯模型分析黄河流域各市“四水”协同演化规律. 采用模糊集定性比较分析方法（fsQCA）探寻黄河流域“四水”协同的优化路径. 研究结果表明，黄河流域“四水”协同发展水平在2014~2023年间整体呈现波动上升趋势，其中下游地区协同发展水平高于上游和中游地区. 从必要条件分析来看，7个前因变量均不是高“四水”协同水平的必要条件，表明黄河流域“四水”协同水平的提升需要综合考虑多重条件的联动效应. 通过fsQCA分析，识别出3种主要的协同发展路径：“技术-组织-环境”型、“技术-组织”型和“组织-环境”型，以上路径在不同区域表现出不同的特征：上游地区呈现“环境推动式”发展，中游地区表现出“组织牵引式”发展，而下游地区则展现出“技术-环境双线式”发展. 研究可为黄河流域“四水”协同发展提供理论依据和实践指导，对于推动黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展具有重要意义. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Based on the theory of co-evolution of composite systems development， this study constructs a technology-organization-environment （TOE） framework and chooses 60 cities at the prefecture level within the Yellow River Basin spanning the years 2014 to 2023 for analysis. It also utilizes the entropy-weighted TOPSIS approach to evaluate the advancement of the “four waters” concept （water resource， water environment， water ecology， and water disaster） in each city， employs the Haken model to analyze the co-evolutionary laws of the “four waters” in the cities of the Yellow River Basin， and uses the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis （fsQCA） technique to investigate the most effective trajectory for the synchronized development of the “four waters” within the Yellow River Basin. The findings indicated that between 2014 and 2023， the co-evolutionary level of the “four waters” has experienced an overall upward movement with fluctuations， notably with the downstream regions exhibiting a more advanced degree of co-evolution compared to that of the upstream and midstream areas. From the analysis of necessary conditions， none of the seven antecedent variables were necessary conditions for a high level of “four waters” co-evolution， indicating that the improvement of the co-evolution level of the “four waters” in the Yellow River Basin requires a comprehensive consideration of the linkage effects of multiple conditions. Through fsQCA analysis， three main paths of co-evolution were identified： “Technology-Organization-Environment” type， “Technology-Organization” type， and “Organization-Environment” type. These paths showed different characteristics in different regions： The upstream area showed an “environment-driven” development， the middle reaches showed an “organization-driven” development， and the downstream area showed a “technology-environment dual-track” development. This study provides a theoretical basis and practical guidance for the co-evolution of the “four waters” in the Yellow River Basin， which is of great significance for promoting the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. |
