| 基于DPSIR和PLS-SEM模型的京津冀城市群减污降碳协同水平评价与路径分析 |
| 摘要点击 262 全文点击 9 投稿时间：2025-04-17 修订日期：2025-07-26 |
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| 中文关键词 减污降碳 DPSIR模型 PLS-SEM模型 协同水平 京津冀城市群 |
| 英文关键词 pollution and carbon emission reduction DPSIR model PLS-SEM model synergy level Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202504220 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 实现减污降碳协同增效是促进经济社会经济全面绿色低碳转型的总抓手. 开展城市减污降碳协同度评价是推进减污降碳协同增效的有力手段. 基于DPSIR模型框架，构建减污降碳协同水平评价指标体系，运用综合评价模型和PLS-SEM模型，对2013~2022年京津冀城市群减污降碳协同水平进行评价并进行路径分析. 结果表明：①城市群减污降碳协同指数呈上升趋势，城市协同水平明显提升. 其中，北京实现减污降碳的高水平协同，天津由初期较低协同水平提升至一般协同水平，河北省地级市均处于较低协同水平层次；②城市群内部各城市的驱动力指数和响应指数差异显著，呈现北京>天津>河北省地级市的空间分异格局. 除邢台和衡水外，其余城市压力指数均有所上升，减污降碳压力得到缓解. 所有城市状态指数均实现显著提升，其中北京、石家庄、廊坊和衡水减污降碳表现突出，而唐山相对欠佳. 北京影响指数远高于其他城市，邢台和邯郸影响指数提升最快；③路径分析结果显示，R对D、S和I均具有显著正向影响，对P具有显著的负向影响. 此外，R对“D→P”和“P→S”均起到显著调节效应. 强化响应措施，是城市群减污降碳协同推进的关键路径. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Realizing the synergy of pollution reduction （PR） and carbon reduction （CR） is the overall starting point for promoting the comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation of economic and social development. The evaluation of the synergy degree of urban PR and CR is a powerful means to promote the synergistic effect of PR and CR. In this context， this study focuses on the synergy level of PR and CR at the city level. Based on the DPSIR model framework， this study designs the evaluation indicator system of the synergy level of PR and CR. Then， we construct an evaluation model and evaluate the synergy level of PR and CR in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei （BTH） Urban Agglomeration from 2013 to 2022. Further， this study utilizes the PLS-SEM model to analyze the synergistic path of PR and CR. The results show that：①The synergy index of PR and CR in the BTH Urban Agglomerations showed an upward trend， and the synergy level of all the cities has improved. Among them， Beijing has realized a high synergy level of PR and CR， Tianjin has improved from the initial lower synergy level to the general synergy level， and the cities in Hebei Province were all at the lower synergy level. ② The driving force index and response index of the cities within the BTH Urban Agglomerations differed significantly， showing a spatial differentiation pattern of Beijing > Tianjin > prefecture-level cities in Hebei Province. Except for Xingtai and Hengshui， the pressure indexes of the remaining cities have increased. All cities achieved significant improvement in their state indexes， with Beijing， Shijiazhuang， Langfang， and Hengshui excelling in PR and CR， while Tangshan was relatively poor. Beijing's impact index was much higher than that of the other cities， and Xingtai and Handan had the fastest improvement in their impact indexes. ③ The results of the path analysis showed that R had a significant positive effect on D， S， and I and a significant negative effect on P. In addition， R had a significant moderating effect on both “D→P” and “P→S”. Strengthening the response measures is the key path for the synergistic promotion of PR and CR in the BTH Urban Agglomerations. |
