| 交通碳排放与经济发展“协调-脱钩”的危机转化 |
| 摘要点击 230 全文点击 4 投稿时间：2025-04-18 修订日期：2025-07-12 |
| 查看HTML全文
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 中文关键词 交通碳排放 经济发展 协调发展 Tapio脱钩 危机转化度 |
| 英文关键词 transportation carbon emissions economic development coordinated development Tapio decoupling crisis transformation degree |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202504238 |
|
| 中文摘要 |
| 经济不断发展的同时面临着交通碳排放过度的环境危机，厘清交通碳排放与经济发展之间的关系，化危为机，对实现“双碳”目标意义重大. 在构建综合评价指标体系的基础上，运用协调发展和Tapio脱钩原理，创建了“协调-脱钩”的危机转化度模型，对2008~2022年中国交通碳排放与经济发展进行了实证研究. 结果表明：①我国交通碳排放指数呈“U”型趋势，从2008年的0.8下降至2017年的0.71，然后波动上升至2022年的0.76；经济发展指数处于波动上升的趋势，从2008年的0.15升至2022年的0.29. ②全国协调发展指数逐年波动上升，从2008年的0.34升至2022年的0.55，增长了61.8%，但局部区域发展时间不同步和空间不平衡，还有待提升. ③全国脱钩状态经历了“先升-后降-再回升”的“N型”发展趋势，大部分省域都能实现强、弱或衰退脱钩且能够保持稳定良好或持续改善的状态. ④全国危机转化水平上升趋势明显，2022年较2009年增长了136.4%，分布特征表现为“东高西低、南高北低”，等级结构从“金字塔”向“倒金字塔”型转变. ⑤交通碳排放与经济发展“协调-脱钩”的危机转化分析比单一的协调发展或脱钩分析更能全面、客观地反映两者耦合关系的真实状况及问题. |
| 英文摘要 |
| While the economy is constantly developing， it is also confronted with the environmental crisis of excessive carbon emissions from transportation. Clarifying the relationship between carbon emissions from transportation and economic development and turning crises into opportunities are of great significance for achieving the “dual carbon” goals. Based on the construction of the comprehensive evaluation index system， by applying the principles of coupled coordinated development and Tapio decoupling， a crisis transformation degree model of “coordination-decoupling” was created， and an empirical study on China's transportation carbon emissions and economic development from 2008 to 2022 was conducted. The results show that： ① China's transportation carbon emission index showed a “U” shaped trend， dropping from 0.8 in 2008 to 0.71 in 2017， and then fluctuating upward to 0.76 in 2022. The economic development index was on a fluctuating upward trend， rising from 0.15 in 2008 to 0.29 in 2022. ② Overall， the national coordinated development index has fluctuated and risen year by year， increasing from 0.34 in 2008 to 0.55 in 2022， a growth of 61.8%. However， in terms of local regions， the development time was not synchronized， and the space was unbalanced， which still needs to be improved. ③ The national decoupling situation has experienced an "N-shaped" development trend of “first rising - then falling - and then rising again.” Most provinces have been able to achieve strong， weak， or declining decoupling and maintain a stable and good or continuously improving state. ④ The national crisis transformation level showed a significant upward trend. In 2022， it increased by 136.4% compared to that in 2009. The distribution characteristics were “higher in the east and lower in the west， higher in the south and lower in the north，” and the hierarchical structure has transformed from a “pyramid” type to an “inverted pyramid” type. ⑤ The crisis transformation analysis of the “coordination-decoupling” of transportation carbon emissions and economic development could more comprehensively and objectively reflect the real situation and problems of the coupling relationship between the two than the single coordination-development or decoupling analysis. |
