| 贵州省农业净碳汇影响因素分解及耦合效应 |
| 摘要点击 278 全文点击 11 投稿时间：2025-03-31 修订日期：2025-07-15 |
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| 中文关键词 农业净碳汇 对数平均迪氏指数法（LMDI） 耦合 向量自回归（VAR）模型 低碳农业 |
| 英文关键词 agricultural net carbon sink logarithmic mean Divisia index（LMDI） coupling vector autoregression（VAR）model low carbon agriculture |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202503354 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 农业兼具碳源与碳汇性质，探讨贵州省农业净碳汇影响因素及其与经济发展的耦合效应对推动贵州省农业部门实现“双碳”目标具有重要价值. 测算2005~2022年贵州省农业净碳效应，借助Tapio脱钩模型探讨贵州省农业净碳汇与农业产值之间的耦合状态变化，基于对数平均迪氏指数法（LMDI）模型分解贵州省农业净碳汇驱动因素，进一步运用向量自回归（VAR）模型分析影响因素与农业净碳汇的动态变化关系并预测农业净碳汇. 结果表明：①研究期贵州省农业呈现出净碳汇特征，碳汇主要来源于玉米和稻谷，而主要碳排放源为畜禽养殖；②贵州省农业净碳汇与农业产值耦合效应表现出经济/生态主导型耦合和生态衰弱型耦合两种状态；③农业经济水平对农业净碳汇有促进作用，而农业净碳汇强度、农业劳动力规模和农业产业结构均抑制农业净碳汇，作用效果依次递减；④从动态关系来看，4个影响因素受到冲击后，农业净碳汇均在一定时期呈现出正负效应反复波动，2023~2030年贵州省农业净碳汇将基本维持在400×104 t左右，呈现“低位趋稳”的特征. 据此提出了应通过实现农业碳汇的经济价值转化、合理调整农业经济发展模式和优化劳动力资源助力贵州省低碳农业发展. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Agriculture has the nature of serving as both a carbon source and carbon sink. Exploring the net carbon effect of agriculture in Guizhou Province and its coupling effects with economic development， as well as analyzing the historical changes and future trends of factors affecting net carbon amount， is of great value for promoting Guizhou Province's agriculture sector to achieve the “dual carbon” goals. In this study， we calculated the net carbon effect of agriculture in Guizhou Province from 2005 to 2022， explored the coupling state changes between the net carbon sink of agriculture and agricultural output value in Guizhou Province using the Tapio decoupling model， decomposed the driving factors of the net carbon sink of agriculture in Guizhou Province based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） model， and further analyzed the dynamic relationship between influencing factors and agricultural net carbon sink using the vector autoregressive （VAR） model to predict the agricultural net carbon sink. The results show that： ① During the study period， Guizhou Province's agriculture exhibited net carbon sink characteristics， with corn and rice being the main carbon sinks， while livestock and poultry farming were the main carbon emission sources. ② The coupling effect between Guizhou Province's agricultural net carbon sink and agricultural output value exhibited two states： economic/ecological dominant coupling and ecological weakening coupling. ③ The level of agricultural economy promoted the agricultural net carbon sink， while the intensity of agricultural net carbon sink， the scale of agricultural labor force， and the agricultural industrial structure all inhibited the agricultural net carbon sink， with decreasing effects in order. ④ From a dynamic perspective， after being impacted by four influencing factors， the agricultural net carbon sink exhibited repeated fluctuations of positive and negative effects over a certain period. From 2023 to 2030， Guizhou Province's agricultural net carbon sink will basically remain around 400×104 t， showing a characteristic of “low-level stabilization.” Based on this， it is proposed that the development of low-carbon agriculture in Guizhou Province should be facilitated by realizing the economic value transformation of agricultural carbon sinks， reasonably adjusting the agricultural economic development model， and optimizing labor resources. |
