| 跨流域调水受水区水-碳生态系统服务供需演变及优化管理分区 |
| 摘要点击 1070 全文点击 13 投稿时间：2025-04-22 修订日期：2025-07-01 |
| 查看HTML全文
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 中文关键词 生态系统服务（ESs） 跨流域调水 水碳耦合 贝叶斯网络 空间格局优化 驱动因素 |
| 英文关键词 ecosystem service（ESs） inter-basin water transfer water-carbon coupling Bayesian network spatial pattern optimization driving factors |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202504263 |
|
| 中文摘要 |
| 跨流域调水通过水资源优化配置来实现水资源供给的空间格局优化，而目前对受水区水-碳生态系统服务的影响研究较少，且缺乏水-碳生态系统联合管理分区优化的研究. 以南水北调东线江苏-山东段的受水区为例，耦合InVEST-Geodetector-Bayes模型，提出一种跨流域调水受水区水-碳生态系统服务管理分区优化方法. 结果表明:①受水区产水服务供给能力相比调水前大幅增强，调水后2015~2020年间单位面积供应量由减转增，由215 829.59 m3·km-2增长至355 086.39 m3·km-2，增幅为64.5%；2005~2015年固碳服务供给呈下降趋势，2015~2020年上升了1.64 t·km-2，空间分布上有引调水量越大的地区固碳服务供给增加越多的趋势；②2005~2020年产水服务供需比分别为-0.014、-0.016、0和0.031，呈先降低后上升的趋势，调水前后由供不应求状态转为供大于求状态；固碳服务供需比总体呈下降趋势，由0.012下降至0.005； ③基于影响因素选择关键因子构建贝叶斯网络模型，结合固碳和产水服务供需的空间分布，将研究区划分为优化调水配置区、固碳产水协调区、绿色低碳发展区和固碳产水潜力区这4类优化分区. 研究结果有助于深入理解区域的水-碳生态系统服务供需状况，可为区域水-碳资源优化配置、调控人水关系、促进可持续发展提供科学依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Cross-basin water transfer optimized the spatial pattern of water supply through the optimal allocation of water resources. However, there has been limited research on the impact of water transfer projects on regional carbon storage and a lack of studies on the optimization of water-carbon ecosystem joint management zoning. Taking the receiving area of the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Jiangsu and Shandong provinces as an example, this study proposed a method for optimizing the zoning of water-carbon ecosystem service management in cross-basin water transfer receiving areas, using the InVEST-Geodetector-Bayes model. The results showed that: ① The supply capacity of water production services in the water-receiving area has been significantly enhanced compared with that before water diversion. After water diversion, the supply per unit area increased from a decrease in 2015 to 2020, growing from 215 829.59 m3·km-2 to 355 086.39 m3·km-2, with an increase rate of 64.5%. From 2005 to 2015, the supply of carbon sequestration services showed a downward trend. From 2015 to 2020, it increased by 1.64 t·km-2. In terms of spatial distribution, there was a trend that the greater the water diversion and diversion volume in the region, the more the supply of carbon sequestration services increased. ② From 2005 to 2020, the supply-demand ratio of water production services was -0.014, -0.016, 0, and 0.031, respectively, showing a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. Before and after the water diversion, it changed from a state of insufficient supply to one of excessive supply. The supply-demand ratio of carbon sequestration services has generally shown a downward trend, dropping from 0.012 to 0.005. ③ Based on the selection of influencing factors and the construction of a Bayesian network model, combined with the spatial distribution of carbon sequestration and water production service supply and demand, the study area was divided into four optimized zones: optimized water transfer allocation zone, carbon-water coordination zone, green low-carbon development zone, and carbon-water potential zone. The results contribute to a deeper understanding of the carbon-water ecosystem service supply-demand status in the region and provide a scientific basis for the optimized allocation of carbon and water resources, regulation of human-water relationships, and promotion of sustainable development. |
|
|
|
