| 基于InVEST与PLUS模型的大熊猫国家公园生态系统服务时空演变及多情景模拟 |
| 摘要点击 1326 全文点击 26 投稿时间：2025-04-03 修订日期：2025-06-17 |
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| 中文关键词 大熊猫国家公园（GPNP） 生态系统服务（ESs） 多情景模拟 InVEST模型 PLUS模型 |
| 英文关键词 Giant Panda National Park（GPNP） ecosystem services（ESs） multi-scenario simulation InVEST model PLUS model |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202504044 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 定量评估生态系统服务功能的时空异质性特征及其对土地利用变化的响应机制，对区域生态安全格局优化与可持续发展具有重要科学价值. 以大熊猫国家公园（GPNP）及其周边非保护区域栖息地为研究对象，基于2011~2021年土地利用、气候、土壤等多源数据，结合InVEST模型量化水源涵养量、土壤保持量、碳储量和生境质量这4类关键生态系统服务的动态演变规律. 通过构建自然发展、生态保护和经济发展这3种情景模式，利用PLUS模型预测2031年土地利用格局，解析不同发展模式下生态系统服务的响应机制. 结果表明:①研究期内GPNP与非GPNP区域水源涵养量（35.91%与51.21%，增长率，下同）、土壤保持量（49.19%与78.54%）均呈现显著增长态势，碳储量增幅分别为0.36%和1.53%；生境质量指数在GPNP区域呈现先下降后回升的阶段性波动特征，非GPNP生境质量指数持续上升，但整体变化幅度较小. ②空间演变呈现显著的地理分异规律:碳储量与生境质量变化主要集中于成都平原城市群核心区，水源涵养量与土壤保持量增量主要分布于岷山山系的高海拔区域，且GPNP与非GPNP区域呈现协同增长趋势. ③多情景模拟显示，相较于自然发展情景，2031年国家公园政策主导的生态保护模式提升土壤保持量44.09%（达3.54×109 t），同时显著增强碳储量（增加1.48×105 t），而经济发展模式将导致碳储量和生境质量退化. 研究结果揭示了大熊猫国家公园建设对生态系统服务的时空异质性影响及提升效应差异，为优化区域土地利用结构、协调生态保护与社会经济发展提供科学依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Quantitative assessment of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity characteristics of ecosystem services and their response mechanisms to land use changes is of significant scientific value for optimizing regional ecological security patterns and promoting sustainable development. Taking the Giant Panda National Park (GPNP) and its surrounding non-protected habitat areas as the research object, this study utilized multi-source data including land use, climate, and soil from 2011 to 2021. The InVEST model was applied to quantify the dynamic evolution patterns of four key ecosystem services: water conservation, soil retention, carbon storage, and habitat quality. By constructing three scenario modes (natural development, ecological protection, and economic development), the PLUS model was used to predict land use patterns in 2031 and analyze the response mechanisms of ecosystem services under different development modes. The results showed that: ① During the study period, both GPNP and non-GPNP areas experienced significant increases in water conservation (35.91% vs. 51.21% increasing rate, same as below) and soil retention (49.19% vs. 78.54%), with carbon storage increasing by 0.36% and 1.53%, respectively. Habitat quality in GPNP demonstrated a phased fluctuating pattern of initial decline followed by recovery, while non-GPNP areas showed continuous but marginally significant improvements. ② Spatial evolution exhibited distinct geographical differentiation: Changes in carbon storage and habitat quality were mainly concentrated in the core areas of the Chengdu Plain urban agglomeration, while increments in water conservation and soil retention were primarily distributed in high-altitude regions of the Minshan Mountain Range, showing synchronous growth trends in both GPNP and non-GPNP areas. ③ Multi-scenario simulations indicated that compared with that under the natural development scenario, the ecological protection mode dominated by national park policies in 2031 would increase soil retention capacity by 44.09% (reaching 3.54×109 t) and significantly enhance carbon storage (adding 1.48×105 t), whereas the economic development mode would lead to degradation of carbon storage and habitat quality. This study reveals the spatio-temporal heterogeneous impacts and differential enhancement effects of GPNP construction on ecosystem services, providing a scientific basis for optimizing regional land use structures and coordinating ecological protection with socioeconomic development. |
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