| 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的白洋淀上游流域生态修复协同技术实施效应模拟评估 |
| 摘要点击 1176 全文点击 21 投稿时间：2025-04-22 修订日期：2025-07-09 |
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| 中文关键词 一体化治理与技术协同 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 土地利用变化 生态系统服务（ESs） 白洋淀上游流域 |
| 英文关键词 integrated governance and technology synergy PLUS model InVEST model land use change ecosystem services （ESs） Baiyangdian Upstream Basin |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202504265 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 白洋淀生态环境治理规划作为雄安新区建设的关键环节，推进其上游流域生态、植物和动物这3方面协同修复技术精准实施是促进白洋淀生态治理和增强生态系统服务输出的迫切需求. 研究白洋淀上游流域协同技术实施效果潜力和其对生态系统服务功能的影响，对流域可持续发展具有重要意义. 运用PLUS-InVEST模型模拟评估协同技术实施下白洋淀上游流域2036年生态系统服务指标，分析指标时空变化的驱动机制，纵向对比不同种技术协同间差异，探讨协同技术实施的必要性. 同时，将模拟结果与实际规划对比分析，探讨协同技术实施对于实现2035年阶段性目标的贡献程度. 结果表明:①协同技术实施可以提高单方面技术的作用效果，形成相互促进的效果，协同作用对白洋淀流域后续生态修护工作具有较强重要性；②未来人口的增长影响未来土地利用变化程度最大，对不同土地利用平均贡献率为17.44%，未来协同技术实施需重点考虑人口要素的影响；③协同技术实施下林草面积占比达46.11%，水域面积提升至1 033.37 km2，生境质量指数提升2.47%，碳储量提升1.09%，技术可以助力2035年阶段目标实现；④协同技术实施下流域综合生态服务平均值上升0.002，上升与协同提升下流域生境质量与碳储量共同增加有关，综合生态服务平均值下降在不同城市原因不同，但主要与碳储量变化有关. 协同技术实施对白洋淀生态修复具有积极作用，可以逐步实现白洋淀生态修复2035年阶段性目标，并且协同技术实施对提升未来生态系统服务具有较大潜力. 研究结果可以为白洋淀生态修复工作与区域可持续发展提供指导和建议. |
| 英文摘要 |
| This study evaluated the potential and necessity of implementing the synergistic technology of ecological restoration targeting vegetation, ecology, and habitats within the Baiyangdian upstream basin, a critical component of the Xiongan New Area's environmental strategy. Utilizing the coupled PLUS-InVEST model, this research simulated key ecosystem service indicators for the year 2036 under synergistic restoration scenarios. Analyses identified spatiotemporal change drivers, compared differences between individual and synergistic techniques, assessed progress towards the 2035 interim targets, and quantified the contribution of coordinated implementation to these goals. Key findings demonstrated that synergistic implementation significantly amplified the effectiveness of singular restoration techniques, creating mutually reinforcing outcomes essential for future basin rehabilitation. Population growth emerged as the dominant driver of projected land-use change, averaging a 17.44% contribution across land types, highlighting its critical role in planning future interventions. Synergistic techniques substantially improved key metrics: forest-grassland coverage reached 46.11%, water body area expanded to 1 033.37 km2, habitat quality increased by 2.47%, and carbon storage rose by 1.09%, collectively indicating strong potential for achieving the 2035 targets. The basin-level comprehensive index for ecosystem services increased by 0.002, primarily linked to concurrent gains in habitat quality and carbon storage. While localized decreases in ecosystem services occurred, these were predominantly associated with variations in carbon storage dynamics across different urban areas. The results confirm that the synergistic technology of ecological restoration positively contribute to Baiyangdian's recovery, possess significant potential for enhancing future ecosystem services, and are instrumental in meeting the 2035 interim objectives. This analysis provides concrete evidence and actionable guidance for optimizing Baiyangdian ecological restoration efforts and promoting regional sustainable development. |
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