| 2000~2022年京津冀地区景观生态风险时空演变及驱动因素分析 |
| 摘要点击 1210 全文点击 25 投稿时间：2025-06-10 修订日期：2025-08-18 |
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| 中文关键词 景观生态风险 驱动因素 景观格局 随机森林 京津冀 |
| 英文关键词 landscape ecological risk driving factors landscape pattern random forest Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202506118 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 在自然因素剧烈扰动与人类社会持续扩张的双重作用下，景观格局受到的干扰与风险逐渐增加. 科学评价景观生态风险，揭示其演变特征及驱动因素的内在机制，对于防范和化解生态风险，维持生态系统的稳定发展具有重要意义. 以京津冀地区为研究对象，基于2000~2022年土地利用数据分析了区域景观格局和景观生态风险时空演变特征，采用相关分析和随机森林回归模型揭示自然环境和人类社会因素对景观生态风险的影响. 结果表明:①2000~2022年，京津冀地区土地利用类型以耕地、林地和草地为主，约占研究区总面积的90%. 建设用地面积比例显著增加，耕地面积比例持续下降；耕地和草地是主要的转出类型，转出面积分别为2.18×104 km2和1.7×104 km2，分别主要流向建设用地和林地. ②2000~2022年间，京津冀地区景观生态风险总体上呈现下降趋势，高风险和相对高风险区面积减少，低风险和相对低风险区面积均有所增加. 高风险区主要分布在研究区的东部沿海和西北坝上高原、盆地等景观破碎化程度较高的区域；低风险区主要分布在西部和北部的山区，且城市中心区域也表现出较低的风险. ③京津冀地区景观生态风险空间格局主要受自然环境因素的驱动，其中归一化植被指数是对景观生态风险空间格局影响最大的驱动因素，但城市空间的快速扩张和人口持续增长一定程度上增加了区域景观生态风险，其带来的生态扰动效应仍不容忽视. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Amid intensifying natural disturbances and ongoing socio-economic expansion, landscape structures are increasingly exposed to fragmentation and ecological risk. A systematic assessment of landscape ecological risk, alongside a mechanistic understanding of its spatiotemporal dynamics and driving forces, is essential for sustaining ecosystem stability and mitigating long-term ecological threats. Focusing on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, we analyzed land use data from 2000 to 2022 to assess the evolution of regional landscape patterns and ecological risk. Using correlation analysis and a random forest regression model, we quantified the respective contributions of natural and anthropogenic drivers to spatial risk distribution. The results showed that: ① from 2000 to 2022, land use in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region was dominated by cropland, forest land, and grassland, together accounting for approximately 90% of the total study area. During this period, the proportion of construction land increased significantly, whereas the share of cropland declined steadily. Cropland and grassland were the main land types converted, with outflow areas of 21 800 km2 and 17 000 km2, respectively, primarily transitioning to construction land and forest land. ② Between 2000 and 2022, the overall landscape ecological risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region showed a declining trend. The areas classified as high-risk and moderately high-risk decreased, whereas those designated as low-risk and moderately low-risk expanded. High-risk zones were mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas and the northwestern Bashang Plateau and basin regions, where landscape fragmentation is more severe. In contrast, low-risk areas were primarily distributed in the mountainous regions of the west and north, with relatively low-risk levels also observed in urban core areas. ③ The spatial pattern of landscape ecological risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region is mainly driven by natural environmental factors, among which the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is the most influential driver of the spatial pattern of landscape ecological risk. However, the rapid expansion of the urban space and the continuous growth of the population have increased the ecological risk of the region's landscapes, and the ecological disturbances brought by them should not be ignored. |
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