| 长三角地区生态脆弱性评估、驱动因素分析及预测 |
| 摘要点击 1454 全文点击 35 投稿时间：2025-04-02 修订日期：2025-05-27 |
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| 中文关键词 生态脆弱性 地理探测器 时空地理加权回归（GTWR） CA-Markov模型 长三角（YRD）地区 |
| 英文关键词 ecological vulnerability geographical detector geographically and temporally weighted regression （GTWR） CA-Markov model the Yangtze River Delta （YRD） region |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202504031 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 长三角地区在我国经济发展和生态保护中占据重要地位. 厘清该地区生态脆弱性特征及其驱动因素，并预测未来的生态脆弱性状况，对于区域的可持续发展具有重要意义. 以长三角地区为研究区，构建包含生态系统状态和人类因素的综合生态脆弱性评价框架，评估2002~2022年生态脆弱性的时空分布和动态演变特征. 运用地理探测器和时空地理加权回归模型深入分析生态脆弱性的驱动因素，并基于CA-Markov模型对未来生态脆弱性进行预测. 结果表明:①2002~2022年，长三角地区生态脆弱性指数从0.349增加至0.385. 生态脆弱性水平以中度脆弱和重度脆弱为主，在空间上呈“北高南低”的特征. ②长三角地区生态脆弱性水平以轻度脆弱向中度脆弱转换为主，且脆弱性水平上升的区域分布较为广泛. ③植被覆盖度、植被净生产力、夜间灯光指数和土地利用程度是生态脆弱性的主要指标因子，并且各主要指标因子对生态脆弱性的影响在空间上表现出一定的异质性. ④根据预测结果，长三角地区生态脆弱性水平短期内（2022~2027年）显著上升，但长期（2027~2037年）则趋于平缓. 研究结果可为长三角地区的生态保护和管理提供科学参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) Region holds a significant position in China's economic development and ecological conservation. Clarifying the characteristics and driving factors of ecological vulnerability in this region, as well as predicting future ecological vulnerability, is of great importance for the region's sustainable development. Taking the YRD Region as the study area, this study constructed a comprehensive ecological vulnerability assessment framework that incorporates both ecosystem status and human factors. The spatiotemporal distribution and dynamic evolution features of ecological vulnerability from 2002 to 2022 were evaluated. The driving factors of ecological vulnerability were analyzed in depth using the geographical detector and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model, and future ecological vulnerability was predicted based on the CA-Markov model. The results show that: ① From 2002 to 2022, ecological vulnerability index in the YRD Region increased from 0.349 to 0.385. The levels of ecological vulnerability were predominantly moderate and severe, exhibiting a spatial pattern of “higher in the north and lower in the south.” ② During the study period, the primary transition in ecological vulnerability levels in the YRD Region was from mild to moderate vulnerability, with a widespread distribution of areas experiencing an increase in vulnerability levels. ③ Vegetation coverage, net primary productivity of vegetation, nighttime light index, and land use intensity were the main indicator factors of ecological vulnerability. Moreover, the impacts of these major indicator factors on ecological vulnerability exhibited certain spatial heterogeneities. ④ According to the predicted results, the ecological vulnerability level in the YRD Region will rise significantly in the short term (from 2022 to 2027) but will tend to stabilize in the long term (from 2027 to 2037). The research findings can provide scientific references for ecological protection and management in the YRD Region. |
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