| 喀斯特山区城市土地利用变化及多情景模拟预测:以贵阳市为例 |
| 摘要点击 1276 全文点击 28 投稿时间：2025-03-18 修订日期：2025-06-26 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用变化 喀斯特山区 PLUS模型 驱动因子 多情景模拟预测 贵阳市 |
| 英文关键词 land use change karst mountainous area PLUS model driving factors multi-scenario simulation prediction Guiyang City |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202503216 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 开展和实现“人-地”耦合的土地利用变化模拟及应用，是揭示土地利用/土地覆盖变化驱动因素、演变过程及趋势的有效手段，对于区域国土空间治理与高质量发展具有重要意义. 研究以典型喀斯特山区城市贵阳市为例，利用土地利用转移矩阵、PLUS模型和多类随机斑块种子CA等模型方法，探究贵阳市2000~2020年的土地利用时空演变特征及驱动因素，并对2035年自然发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态优先情景的土地利用变化及分布格局进行模拟预测. 结果表明:①2000~2020年贵阳市耕地、林地和草地面积呈现缩减趋势，建设用地扩张呈现“中心集聚-轴向延伸”模式，其扩张强度与作为省会城市的强虹吸效应具有显著关联. 受地形限制、环境变化及生态脆弱性的影响，喀斯特地区土地利用格局塑造存在典型的“山地城镇化”路径依赖；②社会经济和交通区位是贵阳市土地利用变化的主要驱动因子，高程和归一化植被指数是影响贵阳市土地利用变化的重要因素；③基于2035年情景模拟结果对比，生态优先情景是贵阳市未来土地利用较为适宜的发展策略，以建设用地增速下降1.2个百分点为代价，2035年生态优先情景下贵阳市生态用地占比相较于2020年的58.7%可提升至61.2%. 研究结果可为新时期山地城市国土空间治理与可持续发展提供参考借鉴. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The simulation and application of land use change with “people-land” coupling is an effective means to reveal the driving factors, evolutionary process, and trend of land use/land cover change, which is of great significance for the high-quality development of regional territorial space. Taking Guiyang City, a typical karst mountainous city, as an example, this study explores the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of land use in Guiyang City in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 using modeling methods such as the land use transfer matrix, PLUS model, and multiclass stochastic patch seeded CA and simulates land use changes and distribution patterns under the natural development scenario, arable land preservation scenario, and ecological priority scenario for the year 2035. The results show that: ① From 2000 to 2020, Guiyang City's arable land, forest land, and grassland area showed a shrinking trend, and the expansion of construction land showed a pattern of “central concentration-axial extension,” the expansion intensity of which was significantly related to the strong siphoning effect of being the capital city of the province. Due to the influence of topographic constraints, environmental changes, and ecological fragility, there was a typical “mountain urbanization” path dependence in the shaping of land use patterns in karst areas. ② Socio-economic and traffic location was the main driving factor of land use change in Guiyang City, and elevation and the normalized vegetation index (NVI) were the important factors affecting the land use change in Guiyang City. ③ Based on the comparison of the simulation results of the 2035 scenarios, the eco-priority scenario is a more appropriate development strategy for Guiyang City's future land use, and at the cost of decreasing the growth rate of construction land by 1.2 percentage points, the proportion of ecological land in Guiyang City in the eco-priority scenario could be increased to 61.2% in 2035, compared with 58.7% in 2020. The results of this study can provide reference for the new era of urban territorial spatial planning and sustainable development in mountainous areas. |
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