| 基于多情景土地利用/覆盖变化的天山北部经济区碳汇服务空间格局优化 |
| 摘要点击 1271 全文点击 24 投稿时间：2025-05-11 修订日期：2025-07-01 |
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| 中文关键词 碳汇服务 土地利用变化 PLUS-InVEST模型 贝叶斯网络 空间格局优化 |
| 英文关键词 carbon sequestration services land use change PLUS-InVEST model Bayesian network optimization of spatial pattern |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202505090 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 在全球气候变化与“双碳”目标的背景下，优化碳汇服务空间格局是实现区域碳中和与生态经济协同发展的关键. 以天山北部经济区为案例，集成PLUS模型与InVEST模型，模拟自然发展（ND）、城镇发展（UD）、耕地保护（CP）及生态保护（EP）这4种情景下2035年土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）对碳汇服务的影响，并融合贝叶斯网络解析驱动机制，提出空间优化分区方案. 结果表明:①LUCC对碳汇服务具有显著调控作用，碳储量空间分布呈“西南条带状、东北点状”特征，高值区集中于森林与草地覆盖的南部，低值区分布于北部建设用地和未利用地，呈现零星破碎化特征. ②多情景模拟显示，2035年自然发展情景与城镇发展情景使碳储量较2020年分别下降0.74%和1.56%，而耕地保护情景与生态保护情景分别增加0.34%和0.02%，表明耕地保护与生态约束政策可有效减缓碳损失. ③基于地理探测器与贝叶斯网络的空间优化将研究区划分为生态涵养区、生态缓冲区、耕地优化区与建设优化区，其中西北部需优先实施集约开发与碳配额管理，南部生态核心区需要严格限制开发与推进植被修复. 基于碳汇服务现状开展空间格局优化，为干旱区国土空间规划与碳中和路径提供科学工具，助力“双碳”目标下生态保护红线划定与生态经济协同发展. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Under the background of global climate change and the “dual-carbon” goals, optimizing the spatial pattern of carbon sequestration services is crucial for achieving regional carbon neutrality and the coordinated development of ecological and economic aspects. Using the northern Tianshan economic zone as a case, this study combines the PLUS and InVEST models to simulate the impact of land use/cover changes (LUCC) in four scenarios—natural development (ND), urban development (UD), farmland protection (CP), and ecological protection (EP)—on carbon storage by 2035. Additionally, a Bayesian network is used to analyze the driving mechanisms, and a spatial optimization zoning plan is proposed. The results show that: ① LUCC significantly regulated carbon sequestration services, with carbon storage distributed in a “southwest belt and northeast spot” pattern. High-value areas were concentrated in the south covered by forests and grasslands, and low-value areas were scattered in the north's construction land and unused land, showing a fragmented pattern. ② Multi-scenario simulations indicated that by 2035, carbon storage in the natural development scenario and urban development scenario in 2035 will have decreased by 0.74% and 1.56%, respectively, compared to those in 2020, while the farmland protection and ecological protection scenarios will increase by 0.34% and 0.02%, showing that farmland protection and ecological constraints could effectively reduce carbon loss. ③ Based on geographical detectors and Bayesian networks, the study area was divided into ecological conservation, buffer, farmland optimization, and construction optimization zones. The northwest needs priority intensive development and carbon quota management, and the southern ecological core should limit development to restore vegetation. Optimizing the spatial pattern based on the current carbon sequestration services provides a scientific tool for land space planning and carbon neutrality paths in arid regions, assisting in defining ecological protection red lines and promoting ecological-economic development under the “dual-carbon” goals. |
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