| 基于InVEST-PLUS模型的秦岭水源涵养量时空演变及多情景预测 |
| 摘要点击 1381 全文点击 39 投稿时间：2025-03-03 修订日期：2025-06-17 |
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| 中文关键词 水源涵养 土地利用变化 InVEST 模型 PLUS 模型 秦岭 |
| 英文关键词 water conservation land use change InVEST model PLUS model Qinling Mountains |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202503023 |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 勾志涛 | 长安大学土地工程学院, 西安 710054 | gouzhitao@chd.edu.cn | | 张鹏 | 长安大学土地工程学院, 西安 710054 | | | 贾夏 | 长安大学水利与环境学院, 西安 710054
自然资源部退化及未利用土地整治工程重点实验室, 西安 710054
陕西省土地整治重点实验室, 西安 710054 | | | 司绍诚 | 长安大学土地工程学院, 西安 710054
自然资源部退化及未利用土地整治工程重点实验室, 西安 710054
陕西省土地整治重点实验室, 西安 710054 | | | 赵永华 | 长安大学土地工程学院, 西安 710054
自然资源部退化及未利用土地整治工程重点实验室, 西安 710054
陕西省土地整治重点实验室, 西安 710054 | yonghuaz@chd.edu.cn |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 秦岭作为我国生态安全屏障和关键水源涵养区，具有重要的生态战略地位. 为探究秦岭水源涵养量的空间分布、变化特征及未来不同情景土地利用变化对水源涵养量的影响，基于InVEST模型和PLUS模型，分析秦岭1985~2023年水源涵养量的时空变化，并预测未来2035年自然发展、耕地保护和生态保护这3种土地利用情景下的秦岭水源涵养量. 结果表明:①秦岭1985~2023年平均水源涵养量为331.65 mm，水源涵养量呈现波动变化的特征，空间上呈现“中部较高、西高东低、南高北低、差异显著”的分异格局. ②从土地利用类型来看，林地占据了秦岭水源涵养功能空间格局中的主导地位，年平均水源涵养总量为177.42×108 m3，远高于其他地类. ③自然发展、耕地保护和生态保护情景下秦岭2035年水源涵养总量分别为226.04×108、225.47×108和227.36×108 m3，相比2023年分别增加5.23×108、4.66×108和6.55×108 m3. 研究结果对科学评估区域用水安全及预测未来水资源变化趋势具有指导意义. |
| 英文摘要 |
| As a crucial ecological security barrier and a key water conservation area in China, the Qinling Mountains hold significant ecological strategic importance. To explore the spatial distribution, temporal variation characteristics, and impacts of future land use changes on water conservation in the Qinling Mountains, this study integrated the InVEST and PLUS models to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in water conservation from 1985 to 2023 and to predict water conservation under three land use scenarios—natural development, cropland protection, and ecological protection—in 2035. The results indicate that: ① The average water conservation in the Qinling Mountains from 1985 to 2023 was 331.65 mm, exhibiting a fluctuating trend over time. Spatially, water conservation presented a distinct pattern characterized by higher values in the central region, higher levels in the west than in the east, and higher levels in the south than in the north, with significant regional differences. ② In terms of land use types, forests played a dominant role in water conservation, with an average annual total water conservation volume of 177.42×108 m3, which was substantially higher than that of other land types. ③ Under the natural development, cropland protection, and ecological protection scenarios, the total water conservation volume in 2035 was projected to be 226.04×108, 225.47×108, and 227.36×108 m3, respectively, representing increases of 5.23×108, 4.66×108, and 6.55×108 m3 compared to those in 2023. This study provides valuable insights for scientifically assessing regional water security and predicting future water resource trends. |
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