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中国再生水利用的时空格局与驱动机制
摘要点击 1416  全文点击 33  投稿时间:2025-04-24  修订日期:2025-07-04
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中文关键词  中国  再生水  SUR模型  主成分分析(PCA)  聚类分析(HCA)  水资源
英文关键词  China  reclaimed water  SUR model  principal component analysis (PCA)  hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA)  water resource
DOI  10.13227/j.hjkx.202504296
作者单位E-mail
张应华 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101 zhangyinghua@igsnrr.ac.cn 
中文摘要
      再生水作为缓解全球水资源短缺和实现可持续发展目标(SDG6)的关键策略,是推动水资源可持续利用的重要途径. 中国目前尚未系统掌握再生水利用情况的时空格局演变规律,且对其驱动机制的研究仍处于起步阶段. 通过综合运用聚类分析(HCA)、主成分分析(PCA)和似不相关回归模型(SUR模型)等统计方法,系统揭示中国再生水利用的时空格局及其变化规律,定量分析自然-社会-人文等因素对其驱动机制. 再生水利用时空演变受经济发展、水资源禀赋、产业政策和农业基础四维因素驱动,经历三阶段演进:从标准体系完善期的低效利用(2002~2008年),到政策目标驱动的脉冲式增长(2009~2016年),最终形成政策(“水十条”)-市场-技术(MBR等技术普及)协同的利用效率显著加速提升(2017~2023年). 中国再生水资源利用率的空间分布显示出“农业活动约束下的区域分异”特征,其空间分异的机制经历了从政策推广驱动到区域因素和政策导向共同作用的转变过程. 农村基础设施投入不足形成明显短板效应,致使农村污水收集效率与处理能力呈现系统性偏低特征,农业活动主导区呈现“高利用率-低利用量”的背离格局,凸显分布式处理系统建设的必要性. 水资源禀赋对再生水资源的利用量和利用率的影响作用相反(丰水期利用率升而利用量降,枯水期相反)揭示了再生水作为弹性水源的调配功能,凸显其战略定位在水资源管理中具有重要调控作用. 随着水资源禀赋条件的限制日益增强以及人口红利的逐渐消退,再生水利用必将从规模扩张转向优化配置,研究结果不仅为再生水利用政策提供决策支持,也为水资源优化配置提供理论依据,从而实现全国再生水资源管理均衡发展.
英文摘要
      Reclaimed water serves as a crucial strategy to alleviate global water scarcity and advance United Nations sustainable development goal (SDG) 6, offering an essential pathway toward the sustainable utilization of water resources. Despite growing recognition of reclaimed water (RW) as a sustainable solution to water scarcity, China has yet to systematically characterize its spatiotemporal evolution or fully understand the mechanisms driving its utilization. This study applies a combination of hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), principal component analysis (PCA), and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model to uncover national patterns and temporal trends in RW use. It also quantitatively examines the influence of natural, socioeconomic, and anthropogenic factors. The evolution of reclaimed water utilization in China can be categorized into three distinct phases: ① inefficient use during the national standards refinement period (2002-2008); ② policy-target-driven expansion (2009-2016); and ③ accelerated efficiency gains driven by synergistic effects of policy, market forces, and technological advancements (e.g., widespread adoption of membrane bioreactor (MBR) technology) from 2017 to 2023. These developments were shaped by four primary drivers: economic growth, water resource endowment, industrial policies, and agricultural infrastructure. Spatially, RW utilization rates exhibited a pattern of “regional divergence constrained by agricultural activities.” Over time, the drivers of this spatial variation have shifted from being primarily influenced by top-down policy promotion to a combination of regional characteristics and policy alignment. In agriculturally dominant regions, inadequate rural infrastructure has severely limited sewage collection and treatment capacity, resulting in a paradoxical situation of high utilization rates but low absolute reuse volumes—highlighting the urgent need for distributed treatment systems. The inverse effects of water resource endowment on reclaimed water usage—in which utilization rates increase while usage volumes decrease during wet seasons and vice versa during dry seasons—underscores the strategic role of reclaimed water as a flexible regulatory resource. This characteristic positions RW as a critical component in adaptive water resource management, especially under changing climatic and demographic conditions. As constraints on freshwater resources intensify and demographic advantages wane, China's reclaimed water strategy must evolve from simple capacity expansion toward optimization and efficient allocation. This study provides valuable insights for shaping differentiated RW policies and offers a theoretical foundation for sustainable water resource planning, with important implications for achieving SDG6 and improving national water security.

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