| 中国多源碳排放演化与碳减排路径分析 |
| 摘要点击 2977 全文点击 314 投稿时间：2025-03-06 修订日期：2025-06-30 |
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| 中文关键词 碳排放系统 系统动力学 能源规划 情景仿真 可持续发展 |
| 英文关键词 carbon emission system system dynamics energy planning scenario simulation sustainable development |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202503060 |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 柳梦琳 | 西安交通大学能源与动力工程学院, 热流科学与工程教育部重点实验室, 西安 710049 | menglinliu@stu.xjtu.edu.cn | | 赵清华 | 西安交通大学能源与动力工程学院, 热流科学与工程教育部重点实验室, 西安 710049 | | | 马欲翔 | 西安交通大学能源与动力工程学院, 热流科学与工程教育部重点实验室, 西安 710049 | | | 吴江涛 | 西安交通大学能源与动力工程学院, 热流科学与工程教育部重点实验室, 西安 710049 | jtwu@mail.xjtu.edu.cn | | 孟现阳 | 西安交通大学能源与动力工程学院, 热流科学与工程教育部重点实验室, 西安 710049 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 为探究中国多源碳排放演化规律并制定科学减排路径，构建了融合“核算-分解-预测”的中国多源碳排放综合分析框架. 基于2000~2022年中国能源消费、土地利用及废弃物处理数据，采用IPCC系数法核算多源碳排放量，运用对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）模型解构碳排放驱动因素，并通过系统动力学（SD）模型和情景分析模拟2023~2050年中国碳排放演变趋势. 结果表明:①碳排放总量呈现“快速攀升-增速放缓”的阶段性特征，预计2030年达峰121.93亿t（以CO2计，下同）后持续下降，2050年将降至82.24亿t；②碳排放强度实现跨越式下降，由2000年的3.177 4 t·万元-1降至2050年0.355 8 t·万元-1，累计降幅达88.80%；③驱动因素分解显示能源强度对碳排放抑制作用显著（2001~2022年累计减排1 973.90 Mt），而人均GDP的正向贡献最大（同期增排5 516.83 Mt）；④综合协调发展情景验证了政策干预的时效补偿机制，并以此确定了GDP、能源结构和产业结构等关键参数的量化目标. 研究建立多源碳排放核算体系，揭示多政策协同的最优碳减排路径，可为地区低碳导向的可持续发展提供量化工具和决策依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| To investigate the evolutionary patterns of multi-source carbon emissions and formulate scientific reduction pathways in China, this study constructed an integrated “accounting-decomposition-prediction” analytical framework. Utilizing China's energy consumption, land use, and waste management data from 2000 to 2022, multi-source carbon emissions were calculated through the IPCC coefficient method, with key driving factors decoupled using the logarithmic man divisia index (LMDI) model. The system dynamics (SD) model combined with scenario analysis was employed to simulate carbon emission trends from 2023 to 2050. The results demonstrate that: ① Total carbon emissions exhibited phased characteristics of “rapid growth followed by decelerated increase,” projected to peak at 12.193 billion t (in terms of CO2, the same as below) in 2030 before declining to 8.224 billion t by 2050. ② Carbon emission intensity achieved leapfrog reduction, decreasing from 3.177 4 t·(104 RMB)-1 in 2 000 to 0.355 8 t·(104 RMB)-1 in 2050, with a cumulative reduction of 88.80%. ③ Driver decomposition revealed that energy intensity significantly inhibited emissions (cumulative reduction of 1 973.90 Mt from 2001 to 2022), while per capita GDP demonstrated the strongest positive contribution (cumulative increase of 5 516.83 Mt). ④ The coordinated development scenario verified the time-sensitive compensation mechanism of policy interventions, establishing quantitative targets for key parameters including GDP, energy structure, and industrial composition. This study establishes a multi-source carbon analytical system, identifies the optimal emission reduction path through multi-policy coordination, and provides quantitative tools and decision-making support for constructing low-carbon oriented regional sustainable development systems. |
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