| 顾及现在与未来的多情景城市热环境空间网络构建 |
| 摘要点击 238 全文点击 1 投稿时间：2025-03-17 修订日期：2025-06-09 |
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| 中文关键词 热环境空间网络 热岛预测 电路理论 PLUS模型 MSPA模型 |
| 英文关键词 thermal environment spatial network urban heat island prediction circuit theory PLUS model MSPA model |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202503184 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 城市热环境风险加剧对生态环境和居民健康构成严重威胁. 以我国典型“火炉城市”长沙市的主城区和长沙县为例，基于多源数据，综合运用MSPA模型、PLUS模型和电路理论，模拟2040年热岛时空变化特征，识别热廊道和关键节点. 结果表明：①2013~2022年研究区热岛面积分别为610.57、596.97、630.31和641.00 km2，主要分布在中部，西北部和东南部持续扩张；热廊道西部分布密集，东部稀疏，夹点数量多于障碍点. ②多情景模拟结果显示，2040年热源在西北部、西南部和东南部出现扩张；西北部热廊道向外延伸，其余地区在原有基础上新增多条. ③城市冷源保护边界（BCUCS）可优化热岛的空间分布格局，减少热量传播路径数量. ④基于城市热环境空间网络，提出“一廊道、两区域、三关注”策略. 研究结果为区域热环境问题的缓解及气候适应发展策略的制定提供了科学参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Urban thermal environmental risks significantly threaten ecosystems and public health. Using the main urban area and Changsha County—typical “furnace” zones in China—as a case study， this research integrates multi-source data and applies morphological spatial pattern analysis （MSPA）， patch-level land use simulation （PLUS）， and circuit theory to simulate the spatiotemporal evolution of urban heat islands in 2040 and identify heat corridors and key nodes. The results showed that： ① From 2013 to 2022， the heat island area was 610.57， 596.97， 630.31， and 641.00 km2， respectively. Heat islands were mainly concentrated in the central region， with continuous expansion observed in the northwest and southeast. Heat corridors were denser in the west and sparser in the east， with more pinch points than barriers. ② By 2040， heat sources are expected to expand in the northwest， southwest， and southeast； corridors in the northwest extend outward， with new ones emerging elsewhere. ③ Boundaries to conserve urban cold sources （BCUCS） can optimize the spatial configuration of heat islands and reduce thermal transmission paths. ④ A “one-corridor， two-zone， three-focus” strategy is proposed based on the thermal spatial network. These findings provide a scientific basis for mitigating thermal risks and guiding climate-adaptive urban development. |
