| 黄河流域水-社会-经济系统韧性的时空演化及影响因素分析 |
| 摘要点击 251 全文点击 6 投稿时间：2025-03-07 修订日期：2025-05-24 |
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| 中文关键词 水-社会-经济系统（WSES）韧性 时空演化 影响因素 黄河流域 社会网络 |
| 英文关键词 water-society-economy system（WSES） resilience spatiotemporal evolution influencing factors Yellow River Basin social network |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202503070 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 增强水-社会-经济系统（WSES）韧性并明确提升路径是黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略实施的必然选择. 以黄河流域49个城市为研究对象，构建黄河流域WSES韧性评价指标体系，分别采用核密度方法和莫兰指数（Moran's I）方法探究其时空演化特征和空间关联程度，并利用社会网络分析法和解释结构模型揭示各影响因素之间的作用关系. 结果表明：①黄河流域WSES韧性呈波动上升趋势，上游地区WSES韧性低于中游地区和下游地区. 高韧性等级的城市多为省会城市，低韧性等级的城市主要集中在上游地区；②黄河流域WSES韧性整体呈现“单峰-多峰”“主峰右移”“波峰高度下降-上升、宽度变宽”“右拖尾、延展拓宽”的特征，全流域整体两级分化逐渐增强. ③黄河流域WSES 韧性呈现空间正相关，局部空间自相关空间集聚稳定性较好，且数量结构变化不大. ④水系统是阻碍黄河流域WSES韧性的主要因素，其次分别是经济系统和社会系统；水资源总量、再生水利用率、水资源开发利用率和环保投资是影响WSES韧性水平的关键影响因素. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Strengthening the resilience of the water-society-economy system （WSES） and identifying clear pathways for enhancement are indispensable steps for advancing ecological conservation and high-quality development strategies in the Yellow River Basin. This study takes 49 cities in the Yellow River Basin as research objects and constructs a WSES resilience evaluation index system for the Yellow River Basin. It employs the kernel density method and Moran's I to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and the degree of spatial correlation， respectively. Furthermore， it uses social network analysis and interpretive structural modeling to reveal the relationships among the influencing factors. The results showed that： ① The resilience of WSES in the Yellow River Basin demonstrated a fluctuating yet upward trajectory， with the upstream region having lower WSES resilience than that of the middle and downstream regions. Cities with high resilience were mostly provincial capitals， while those with low resilience were mainly concentrated in the upstream area. ② The WSES resilience in the Yellow River Basin exhibited characteristics of “single peak-multiple peaks” “rightward shift of the main peak” “decrease-increase in peak height and widening of peak width” and “rightward extension and widening”. The overall polarization in the basin was gradually intensifying. ③ The WSES resilience in the Yellow River Basin showed positive spatial correlation. The local spatial autocorrelation was stable in terms of spatial agglomeration， and the structural changes in quantity were relatively small. ④ The water system was the primary factor hindering the resilience of WSES in the Yellow River Basin， followed by the economic system and the social system. The resilience level of WSES in the Yellow River Basin was primarily determined by critical factors including total water resource endowment， water recycling efficiency， water development utilization intensity， and environmental protection investment scales. |
