| 耦合PLUS-InVEST模型的新疆土地利用变化及碳储量经济价值估算 |
| 摘要点击 229 全文点击 6 投稿时间：2025-03-19 修订日期：2025-05-30 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC） 碳储量 碳储量经济价值 PLUS-InVEST模型 新疆 |
| 英文关键词 land use/cover change （LUCC） carbon stock economic value of carbon stock PLUS-InVEST model Xinjiang |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202503220 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）是影响生态系统碳储量时空演变的核心要素，阐明碳储量对LUCC的响应关系及其经济价值，对维持区域碳收支平衡与优化土地利用空间格局具有重要意义. 以典型干旱半干旱区新疆为例，耦合PLUS-InVEST模型探究1990~2020年LUCC和碳储量时空响应特征，进一步模拟2060年不同情景（基期发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态保护情景）LUCC与碳储量演变，并利用复利现值与复利终值公式估算碳储量经济价值. 结果表明：①研究期内新疆LUCC呈“两增四减”特征演变，其中耕地面积大量增加，增加33 219.22 km2，林地和水域面积大量减少，分别减少10 797.16 km2和14 934.42 km2；②研究期内新疆总碳储量呈“先减后增”趋势，净减少0.13×108 t，其空间异质性显著，呈“三山高，两盆低”格局；2060年各情景碳储量空间格局与2020年基本一致，数量上呈增长趋势，其中生态保护情景碳储量增长最多，增长1.74×108 t；③研究期内新疆碳储量经济价值提升11 261.99亿元，增长率达80.89%；2060年各情景中生态保护情景碳储量经济价值最高，达56 300.80亿元，未来应优先考虑保护生态以提升区域碳储量经济价值. 研究可为碳资源资产潜力评估提供普适模型，并为干旱半干旱区土地利用结构低碳调整提供案例参考与科学依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Land use/cover change （LUCC） is a key factor influencing the spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem carbon storage. Clarifying the relationship between carbon storage and LUCC， as well as its economic value， is crucial for maintaining regional carbon balance and optimizing land use patterns. This study takes Xinjiang， a typical arid and semi-arid region， as an example. It couples the PLUS-InVEST model to explore the spatiotemporal response characteristics of LUCC and carbon storage from 1990 to 2020. Additionally， it simulates the evolution of LUCC and carbon storage under three scenarios （base period development， arable land protection， and ecological protection） for the year 2060 and estimates the economic value of carbon storage using compound interest formulas. The results are as follows： ① During this period， Xinjiang experienced a “two increases and four decreases” pattern in LUCC. The cropland area increased significantly by 33 219.22 km2， while forest and water areas decreased substantially by 10 797.16 km2 and 14 934.42 km2， respectively. ② Total carbon storage in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020 showed a “first decrease then increase” trend， with a net decrease of 0.13×108 t. It had significant spatial heterogeneity， presenting a “high in three mountains， low in two basins” pattern. In 2060， the spatial pattern of carbon storage in each scenario is basically the same as that in 2020， but the quantity shows an increasing trend. Among them， the ecological protection scenario has the largest carbon storage increase of 1.74×108 t. ③ The economic value of carbon storage in Xinjiang increased by 1 126.199 billion yuan from 1990 to 2020， with a growth rate of 80.89%. In 2060， among all the scenarios， the ecological protection scenario has the highest economic value of carbon storage， reaching 5 630.080 billion yuan. Future efforts should prioritize ecological protection to enhance the economic value of regional carbon storage. This study provides a universal model for assessing carbon resource asset potential and offers scientific basis for the low-carbon adjustment of land use structure in arid and semi-arid regions. |
