| 粤港澳大湾区生态脆弱性与城镇化水平时空耦合及其交互影响因素 |
| 摘要点击 228 全文点击 4 投稿时间：2024-10-16 修订日期：2025-05-24 |
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| 中文关键词 生态脆弱性 城镇化水平 耦合协调度模型 交互影响因素 CRITIC赋权法 粤港澳大湾区（GBA） |
| 英文关键词 ecological vulnerability urbanization level coupled and coordination model interaction factors CRITIC weighting method Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area （GBA） |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202410113 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 协调生态建设与城镇化是区域可持续发展的保证，对科学引导城镇化并实现高质量发展具有重大意义. 为探究粤港澳大湾区生态环境脆弱程度与城镇化的关系，以各区县为评价单元，基于压力-状态-响应模型构建生态脆弱性评价指标体系，从人口-经济-社会-空间这4个维度构建城镇化水平评价指标体系，通过耦合协调模型多维度测算粤港澳大湾区2000~2020年生态脆弱性和城镇化水平的耦合关系，并运用双变量空间自相关、地理加权回归模型探究二者的交互影响效应. 结果表明：①研究期间粤港澳大湾区的脆弱类别以轻度和中度脆弱为主，随着生态脆弱程度的降低，环境逐渐优化，基本形成了中部三角洲平原的生态环境较差，四周山地丘陵地区较好的空间格局. ②城镇化水平整体提升，各区县差距缩小，发展等级向较高水平优化，空间集聚态势明显，呈现环珠江口地区城镇化水平较高，四周边缘地区城镇化水平较低的格局. ③大湾区生态环境与城镇化的耦合协调度值增加，以勉强协调和中度协调为主，同步发展型表明协调可持续的发展关系，而生态环境滞后型地区数量的增多意味着生态环境被严重损耗，需要警惕和重点关注. ④交互作用结果表明，城镇化演进通过人口、经济和社会变迁在空间格局上的反馈加剧生态环境脆弱度；生态环境脆弱度与城镇化水平在空间上正向相关，压力和状态层面正向表征城镇化，响应层面负向反馈城镇化水平. 未来发展中应从减轻压力、区域持续关注、合作共治及发挥人的主体作用等多方面采取保障措施推进大湾区协调高质发展. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The coordination of ecological construction and urbanization is a guarantee of sustainable regional development and is of great significance in guiding urbanization scientifically and achieving high-quality development. To investigate the correlation between ecological vulnerability and the urbanization process in the GBA， each county was assessed as the evaluation unit. An ecological vulnerability evaluation index system was developed using the pressure-state-response model （PSR）. Additionally， an urbanization level evaluation index system was constructed based on the population-economy-society-space model （PESS）. The study investigated the coupling relationship between ecological vulnerability and urbanization level in the GBA from 2000 to 2020 using the coupled and coordination model. Furthermore， we analyzed the interactive effects of these factors through the bivariate spatial autocorrelation model and geographically weighted regression model （GWR）. The results showed that： ① The ecological vulnerability of the GBA decreased， and the environment was gradually optimized from 2000 to 2020. The vulnerability level was dominated by mild and moderate vulnerability. Spatially， a pattern was basically formed where the ecological environment of the central delta plain was poor while the surrounding hilly areas were good. ② The overall level of urbanization in the GBA has improved， the gap between districts and counties has narrowed， and the level of development has been optimized towards a higher level. Spatially， a pattern of high urbanization in the Pearl River Estuary and adjacent dispersed areas and low urbanization in the surrounding areas has been formed. ③ The coupling coordination degree between ecology and urbanization in the GBA has increased， basically dominated by the barely and moderately coordinated development. The increase in the number of regions with synchronized development and lagging ecological environment implies rapid urbanization， and we need to be alert to the potential harm of lagging development of either system. ④ The results of the interaction indicated that urbanization development led to an increased level of regional ecological vulnerability， while the ecological conditions in the region in turn constrained the sustainable and high-quality development of urbanization. Studies suggested that in the GBA， efforts should focus on promoting the healthy development of ecological environment construction and urbanization level， alleviating the contradiction between urbanization development and ecological environment， with a view to realizing the synergistic development of regional urbanization and ecology. |
