| 基于“风险-健康-服务”的长江中游区域生态安全时空演化及影响因素 |
| 摘要点击 226 全文点击 4 投稿时间：2025-04-04 修订日期：2025-06-12 |
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| 中文关键词 区域生态安全 时空演变 影响因素 模拟预测 长江中游地区 |
| 英文关键词 regional ecological security spatiotemporal evolution influencing factors predictive analysis the middle reaches of the Yangtze River |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202504067 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 科学辨识长江中游地区生态安全时空演化特征和影响因素，可为构建区域生态安全屏障提供理论参考. 基于“风险-健康-服务”框架，运用TOSIS法和地理探测器揭示长江中游地区2007~2023年生态安全时空演变特征和影响因素，借助LSTM模型探究未来趋势并提出提升路径. 结果表明：①长江中游地区生态安全水平由2007年0.371增长至2023年0.521，年均增长率为2.38%；生态安全水平空间差异显著，江西等级显著优于湖北和湖南. ②长江中游地区生态安全影响因素由人均建成区面积转变为单位GDP能耗，城镇化率与森林覆盖率交互作用最为显著. ③2024~2035年长江中游地区生态安全水平整体呈“先降后升”的变化趋势，至2035年将达到0.643. 其中，江西增速最快，湖北存在波动变化，而湖南上升速度较缓慢. ④应采取经济低碳化发展、生态修复、保护性耕作及生态协同治理等多元路径共同提升区域生态安全水平. 研究提出了“风险-健康-服务”的新框架，可为生态安全格局优化提供分析视角和理论支撑. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Scientific identification of the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of ecological security in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River can provide theoretical references for the construction of regional ecological security barriers. Based on the “risk-health-service” framework， the TOSIS method and the geographical detector were used to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of ecological security in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2007 to 2023. The LSTM model was employed to explore future trends and propose improvement paths. The results show that： ①The ecological security level in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River increased from 0.371 in 2007 to 0.521 in 2023， with an average annual growth rate of 2.38%. There were significant spatial differences in the ecological security level， with Jiangxi Province having a significantly higher grade than Hubei Province and Hunan Province. ② The influencing factors of ecological security in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River have changed from per capita built-up area to energy consumption per unit GDP. The interaction between urbanization rate and forest coverage rate was the most significant. ③ From 2024 to 2035， the ecological security level in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River will show a trend of “first declining and then rising，” reaching 0.643 by 2035. Among them， Jiangxi Province had the fastest growth rate， Hubei Province had fluctuating changes， and Hunan Province had a relatively slow growth rate. ④ Multiple paths such as low-carbon economic development， ecological restoration， conservation tillage， and ecological collaborative governance should be adopted to jointly improve the regional ecological security level. The study proposed a new “risk-health-service” framework， which can provide an analytical perspective and theoretical support for the optimization of ecological security patterns. |
