| 四川省植被净初级生产力时空格局演变及驱动力分析 |
| 摘要点击 717 全文点击 28 投稿时间：2025-03-14 修订日期：2025-06-11 |
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| 中文关键词 植被净初级生产力（NPP） 人类活动 气候变化 四川省 偏导数分析 |
| 英文关键词 net primary productivity （NPP） human activities climate change Sichuan Province partial derivative analysis |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202503165 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 探究植被净初级生产力（NPP）的时空变化规律及其影响因素，对了解区域生态环境质量和固碳能力至关重要. 基于MODIS NPP数据，采用Theil-Sen Median+Mann-Kendall趋势分析、重心模型、变异系数、Hurst指数分析和偏导数分析等方法，探究2001~2020年四川省植被NPP演变规律并量化区分气候因素及人类活动对NPP变化影响. 结果显示：①四川省植被NPP（以C计，下同）整体呈现波动上升趋势，植被NPP多年均值为506.19 g·（m2·a）-1，增长速率为3.73 g·（m2·a）-1，空间呈现西北低东南高的空间分布格局. ②四川省NPP变化趋势以轻微增加为主，平均变异系数为0.11，主要呈现低波动和中波动变化，但未来80.59%的面积表现为反持续特征. ③植被NPP分布重心表现出自西向东、由北向南的迁移特征，东部区域的植被净初级生产力增长幅度远超西部地区. ④NPP变化中，气候因素相较于人类活动起到了更为显著的作用，而在各类气候因素中，降水的贡献更大. 驱动力分析表明，气候变化与人类活动共同促进了NPP增长，而人类活动主导了NPP的降低过程，但不同经济区存在明显的空间差异. 研究结果为四川省生态保护与区域可持续发展提供了科学参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Exploring the spatial and temporal patterns of the net primary productivity （NPP） of vegetation and its influencing factors is crucial to understanding the regional ecological quality and carbon sequestration capacity. Based on the MODIS NPP data， we used Theil-Sen Median + Mann-Kendall trend analysis， the center of gravity model， coefficient of variation analysis， Hurst index analysis， partial derivative analysis， etc.， to investigate the evolution pattern of vegetation NPP in Sichuan Province from 2001 to 2020 and to distinguish the effects of climate factors and human activities on NPP variations. The results showed that： ① The vegetation NPP of Sichuan Province （in terms of C， the same below） presented a rising tendency with fluctuations and averaged at 506.19 g·（m2·a）-1 annually， with a growth rate of 3.73 g·（m2·a）-1， and the spatial distribution pattern in the northwest， low in the southeast and high in the space. ② The trend of NPP change in Sichuan Province was dominated by a slight increase， with an average coefficient of variation of 0.11， mainly showing low and medium fluctuation changes， but 80.59% of the area in the future showed an anti-continuation feature. ③ The NPP center of gravity migration showed a trend of shifting from west to east and from north to south， and the NPP growth in the east was to a much greater extent than in the west. ④ Climatic factors played a more significant role in NPP change compared with human activities， and precipitation contributed more among climatic factors. The driving force analysis showed that NPP growth was mainly influenced by both climatic factors and human activities， while NPP decrease was mainly dominated by human activities， but there were obvious spatial differences among different economic zones. The results of the study provide scientific references for ecological protection and regional sustainable development in Sichuan Province. |
