| 基于生态地理分区的中国西南地区生态恢复程度及植被恢复潜力评估 |
| 摘要点击 238 全文点击 11 投稿时间：2025-03-07 修订日期：2025-06-05 |
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| 中文关键词 生态恢复程度 植被恢复潜力 人类活动 气候要素 西南地区 |
| 英文关键词 ecological restoration degree vegetation restoration potential human activity climatic factor Southwest China |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202503073 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 西南地区作为中国典型的生态脆弱区之一，21世纪以来重点实施了退耕还林还草等生态工程，取得了显著的生态恢复成效. 但现有研究中基于生态地理分区来量化分析该区域时间序列生态恢复程度及潜力的研究尚显薄弱. 基于气象观测数据、土壤属性数据和多源遥感数据，从生态质量与生态系统服务两个维度构建综合评价体系，采用模型模拟与Theil Sen-MK趋势分析相结合的方法，系统评估2000~2023年西南地区生态恢复的时空格局与整体成效. 通过建立“顶级生态本底”参照系，量化各生态地理分区的植被恢复潜力差异，并运用残差趋势法定量区分气候要素与人类活动对生态系统变化的相对贡献. 结果表明：①近24 a西南地区生态系统质量与生态系统服务整体稳定向好发展，变化速率在空间上呈现非平稳性特征. ②近24 a内西南地区生态修复成效显著，生态系统整体呈现改善与恢复态势，但空间异质性突出. 生态恢复程度较高和高的区域分别占总面积的20.32%和4.34%，主要分布于四川盆地与云贵高原，而特定生态分区存在转差情况. ③2020~2023年西南地区顶极植被覆盖度高，自西北向东南递减. 森林、草地、荒漠生态系统具备3.77%的生态恢复潜力，整体呈西高东低的空间格局. ④气候要素主导西南地区生态系统变化，且气候要素和人类活动的相对贡献率存在空间异质性. 未来生态系统管理工作应考虑气候格局与生态工程的双重制约，并依据区域生态地理特征实施针对性的生态恢复策略. 研究定量揭示气候与人类活动背景下西南地区生态恢复状况与植被恢复潜力，对丰富区域生态恢复研究具有一定参考价值. |
| 英文摘要 |
| As one of the typical ecologically fragile areas in China， Southwest China has carried out ecological projects such as returning farmland to forest and grassland since the 21st century and achieved remarkable ecological restoration results. However， the existing studies on quantifying the degree and potential of ecological restoration in time series based on eco-geographical regions are still weak. Based on meteorological observation data， soil attribute data， and multi-source remote sensing data， a comprehensive evaluation system was constructed from the two dimensions of ecological quality and ecosystem services. The method combining model simulation and Theil Sen-MK trend analysis was adopted to systematically evaluate the spatio-temporal pattern and overall effectiveness of ecological restoration in the southwest region from 2000 to 2023. By establishing a “top-level ecological background” reference system， the differences in vegetation restoration potential among various ecological geographical regions were quantified， and the residual trend method was used to quantitatively distinguish the relative contributions of climate factors and human activities to ecosystem changes. The results showed that： ① The overall ecosystem quality and ecosystem services in Southwest China developed steadily in the past 24 years， and the change rate showed non-stationary characteristics in space. ② In the past 24 years， the ecological restoration in southwest China has achieved remarkable results， and the ecological system has been restored and improved， but the spatial differentiation was obvious. The areas with a relatively high and high degree of ecological restoration accounted for 20.32% and 4.34% of the total area， respectively， mainly distributed in the Sichuan Basin and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau， while there was deterioration in specific ecological zones. ③ The climax vegetation coverage was high in southwest China from 2020 to 2023 and decreased from northwest to southeast. Forest， grassland， and desert ecosystems had 3.77% ecological restoration potential， and the overall spatial pattern was high in the west and low in the east. ④ Climate factors dominated ecosystem changes in Southwest China， and the relative contribution rates of climate factors and human activities had spatial heterogeneity. Future ecosystem management should consider the dual constraints of climate pattern and ecological engineering and implement targeted ecological restoration strategies according to regional ecological geographical characteristics. The study quantitatively reveals the ecological restoration status and vegetation restoration potential in southwest China under the background of climate and human activities， which has certain reference value for enriching regional ecological restoration research. |
