| 数字经济驱动下我国绿色低碳转型的实现路径 |
| 摘要点击 257 全文点击 8 投稿时间：2024-04-01 修订日期：2025-06-13 |
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| 中文关键词 数字经济 绿色低碳转型 技术创新 产业结构升级 系统动力学 |
| 英文关键词 digital economy green and low-carbon transformation technological innovation industrial structure upgrading system dynamics |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202504018 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 为有效破解经济增长与生态环境之间的矛盾，推动经济向绿色低碳模式转型成为关键战略路径. 采用系统动力学方法，构建包含经济、人口、科技、能源和环境这五大子系统的动态仿真模型，系统分析各子系统间的相互作用机制，进而探究2011~2030年数字经济对绿色低碳转型的驱动效应. 通过设计：基准情景、核心情景（数字经济驱动）、辅助情景（技术创新和产业结构升级驱动）及综合情景（多要素协同）进行模拟分析. 结果表明：①在单一驱动情景中，数字经济导向型绿色低碳转型效果最优，其单位GDP碳排放量较基准情景下降40.79%，绿色生产总值增长53.30×1012元；②综合情景产生倍增效应，单位GDP碳排放量降幅扩大至46.38%，绿色生产总值突破294.95×1012元. 研究不仅验证了多要素协同的“1+1>2”转型规律，更构建了“数字牵引-创新驱动-产业重构”的系统性转型框架，为制定绿色低碳转型的集成化政策体系提供决策依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| To reconcile the tension between developmental priorities and environmental sustainability， transitioning toward eco-friendly decarbonized economic systems has emerged as a crucial strategic imperative. By applying the system dynamics method， a dynamic simulation model including five subsystems（economy， population， science and technology， energy， and environment）was constructed to systematically analyze the interaction mechanisms among these subsystems and to explore the driving effect of the digital economy on the green and low-carbon transformation from 2011 to 2030. Through the simulation analysis of the benchmark scenario， core scenario （driven by the digital economy）， auxiliary scenario （driven by technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading）， and comprehensive scenario （driven by multiple factors）， the results showed that： ① In the single driving scenario， the green and low-carbon transformation oriented by the digital economy had the best effect， with the carbon emissions per unit of GDP decreasing by 40.79% compared to the benchmark scenario and the green GDP increasing by 53.30×1012 trillion yuan. ② The comprehensive scenario generated a multiplier effect， with the reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP expanding to 46.38% and the green GDP exceeding 294.95×1012 yuan. This study not only verified the “1+1>2” transformation rule of multi-factor synergy but also constructed a systematic transformation framework of "digital traction-innovation drive-industrial restructuring，" providing a decision-making basis for formulating an integrated policy system for green and low-carbon transformation. |
