| 基于LEAP-ABM模型的中国电力行业供需双侧结构演化及碳减排路径 |
| 摘要点击 247 全文点击 9 投稿时间：2025-03-24 修订日期：2025-06-10 |
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| 中文关键词 电力行业 LEAP模型 多智能体仿真 能源需求 结构演化 碳减排 |
| 英文关键词 power sector LEAP model multi-agent simulation energy demand structural evolution carbon emission reduction |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202503276 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 探究电力行业低碳转型路径对促进经济社会全面绿色转型和实现碳中和目标意义重大. 为规避低碳转型供需结构失调，基于中国重点耗能行业的历史数据，结合多智能体仿真平台构建了LEAP-ABM模型，从“需求-供给”双端协同驱动视角对中国电力行业未来中长期（至2060年）的技术演化和碳排放趋势进行动态预测. 结果表明：①在电源结构演化方面，供需双侧转型存在显著协同作用. 需求侧高速转型能够推动供给侧转型提速，风电和光伏装机容量占比相较于需求侧低速转型在2030年和2060年分别提升5%和2.2%；在需求侧均处于低速转型时，供给侧高速发展策略使2040年的风电和光伏装机占比跃升至80.66%. ②在发电量方面，需求侧转型速度主要影响供给总量. 在2060年，高速转型生产量达到1.5×1013~1.6×1013 kW·h，高于低速转型的1.3×1013 kW·h. 供给侧转型策略则主要影响生产结构. 2040年供需均低速转型时的风光电出力占比为31.3%，煤电为48.93%，而供给侧加速转型后使煤电占比降低至31.01%，风光电出力提升至47.88%. ③在碳排放量方面，供给侧转型策略影响大于需求侧转型影响. 供需双侧高速转型的碳减排效果最佳. 值得注意的是，单一需求侧高速转型碳排放反而较供需双低速转型情景增加7.5%. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Exploring low-carbon transition pathways in the power sector holds significant importance for promoting comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society and achieving carbon neutrality goals. To prevent supply-demand structural imbalances during low-carbon transition， this study develops a LEAP-ABM model integrating historical data from China's energy-intensive industries with a multi-agent simulation platform. From a demand-supply dual-drive synergy perspective， we conduct dynamic predictions on technology evolution pathways and carbon emission trajectories in China's power sector over the medium to long-term horizon （through 2060）. The results indicated that： ① Regarding power structure evolution， significant synergistic effects existed between supply-demand transformations. High-speed demand-side transition accelerated supply-side transformation， with wind and solar installed capacity increasing by 5% and 2.2% in 2030 and 2060， respectively， compared to that in the low-speed demand-side scenarios. Under low-speed demand-side conditions， high-speed supply-side development strategies elevated the proportion of wind and solar installations to 80.66% by 2040. ② In terms of power generation， demand-side transition speed primarily affected total supply. By 2060， high-speed transition scenarios achieved 1.5×1013-1.6×1013 kW·h production， exceeding the 1.3×1013 kW·h under low-speed scenarios. Supply-side strategies mainly influenced generation structure. Under dual low-speed scenarios in 2040， renewable energy accounted for 31.3%， while coal power remained at 48.93%， whereas accelerated supply-side transition reduced coal power to 31.01% and increased renewables to 47.88%. ③ Regarding carbon emissions， supply-side strategies exerted greater influence than demand-side measures. Dual high-speed transformation demonstrated optimal emission reduction effects. Notably， singular high-speed demand-side transition unexpectedly increased emissions by 7.5% compared to those under dual low-speed scenarios. |
