| 黄河流域新型城镇化对碳平衡压力的影响及空间溢出效应 |
| 摘要点击 284 全文点击 10 投稿时间：2025-03-18 修订日期：2025-05-21 |
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| 中文关键词 新型城镇化 碳平衡压力 空间溢出效应 空间杜宾模型 黄河流域 |
| 英文关键词 new-type urbanization carbon balance pressure spatial spillover effects spatial Durbin model Yellow River Basin |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202503202 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 将碳排放与碳吸收纳入统一框架，揭示新型城镇化对碳平衡压力的影响，对实现城镇高质量发展和“双碳”目标具有重要的现实意义. 基于2010~2022年黄河流域66个城市的面板数据，在刻画新型城镇化与碳平衡压力时空演变格局的基础上，采用基准回归模型和空间杜宾模型，实证探究了新型城镇化对碳平衡压力的影响及空间溢出效应. 结果表明：①2010~2022年黄河流域新型城镇化水平和碳平衡压力指数呈上升态势，中等城镇化水平城市占比从16.67%增至54.55%，上游和中游地区多分布碳吸收城市，下游地区则多集中碳排放过载城市；②新型城镇化显著加剧碳平衡压力，且经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立；③异质性结果显示，新型城镇化对上中下游城市、非低碳试点城市、资源型城市和生产型城市的碳平衡压力有显著正向影响，且相比中游城市，对上游和下游城市的作用效果更强，而对低碳试点城市、非资源型城市和服务型城市的影响不显著；④空间效应结果表明，新型城镇化通过空间溢出效应加剧了邻近地区的碳平衡压力. 未来应构建跨区域协同治理框架，因城施策，推动新型城镇化与碳平衡的协同发展. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Bringing carbon emissions and carbon sequestration into a unified framework and revealing the impact of new-type urbanization on carbon balance pressure are of great practical significance to the realization of high-quality urban development and the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.” Based on the panel data of 66 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2022， this study first depicts the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of new-type urbanization and carbon balance pressure. Subsequently， using the baseline model and the spatial Durbin model， the study empirically examines the impact of new-type urbanization on carbon balance pressure and its spatial spillover effects. It was found that： ① From 2010 to 2022， the new-type urbanization level and carbon balance pressure index of the Yellow River Basin showed an upward trend， with the proportion of cities with medium urbanization level increasing from 16.67% to 54.55% and the upstream and midstream regions mostly distributing carbon-absorbing cities， while the downstream regions mostly concentrated on cities with carbon emission overload. ② The new-type urbanization significantly exacerbated the carbon balance pressure， which still held after a series of robustness tests. ③ Heterogeneity results showed that new-type urbanization had a significant positive effect on the carbon balance pressure of upstream， midstream， and downstream cities； non-low-carbon pilot cities； resource-based cities； and manufacturing-oriented cities. The effect on upstream and downstream cities was stronger compared with that on midstream cities， while the effect on low-carbon pilot cities， non-resource-based cities， and service-oriented cities was not significant. ④ Spatial effect results showed that new-type urbanization exacerbated the pressure on carbon balance in neighboring regions through spatial spillover effects. In the future， a cross-regional synergistic governance framework should be constructed， and policies should be applied according to cities to promote the synergistic development of new-type urbanization and carbon balance. |
