| 新质生产力对城市碳排放效率的影响 |
| 摘要点击 314 全文点击 14 投稿时间：2025-03-13 修订日期：2025-05-15 |
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| 中文关键词 新质生产力 碳排放效率 产业结构高级化 人力资本 非线性回归模型 |
| 英文关键词 new quality productivity carbon emission efficiency industrial structure upgrading human capital non-linear regression model |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202503157 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 基于2009~2022年我国273个地级市的面板数据，通过构建面板双固定效应模型和调节模型，系统考察新质生产力对碳排放效率的影响及其机制. 结果表明：①新质生产力与碳排放效率之间存在先抑制后促进的非线性“U”型曲线关系，且具有显著的影响；②产业结构高级化和人力资本均对新质生产力影响碳排放效率存在显著的调节效应，且强化了“U”型曲线拐点前的负向作用和拐点后的正向作用. 一方面促进新质生产力对碳排放效率的影响，另一方面使新质生产力水平对碳排放效率的影响拐点右移. ③新质生产力对碳排放效率影响在资源禀赋、环境治理政策和城市规模等方面存在异质性. 研究结论可为“双碳”目标下以提升产业结构高级化和人力资本为抓手，充分发挥新质生产力赋能城市碳排放效率提供理论支撑和经验证据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Based on the panel data of 273 prefecture level cities in China from 2009 to 2022， this study constructs a panel double fixed-effects model and a moderated model to test the influence mechanism of new quality productivity on carbon emission efficiency. The results showed that： ① The impact of new productivity on carbon emission efficiency was non-linear， with a “U” shape of first inhibition and then promotion， and had a significant impact. ② There was a significant moderating effect of industrial structure upgrading and human capital on the influence of new quality productivity on carbon emission efficiency. On the one hand， industrial structure upgrading and human capital promoted the impact of new quality productivity on carbon emission efficiency， and on the other hand， it shifted the inflection point of the impact of new quality productivity level on carbon emission efficiency to the right. ③ The effect of industrial structure upgrading on new productivity quality on carbon emission was heterogeneous in terms of resource endowment， environmental governance policy， and city scale. The research conclusion provides theoretical support and empirical evidence for the enhancement of industrial structure and human capital to give full play to the new quality productivity to enable the urban carbon emission efficiency under the “double carbon” goal. |
