| 基于STIRPAT的云南碳排放预测及多情景优化 |
| 摘要点击 288 全文点击 13 投稿时间：2025-03-08 修订日期：2025-05-28 |
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| 中文关键词 STIRPAT模型 碳排放 岭回归 情景分析 云南省 |
| 英文关键词 STIRPAT model carbon emissions ridge regression scenario analysis Yunnan Province |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202503087 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 云南省作为中国清洁能源占比最高的省份之一，其碳排放驱动机制与减排路径呈现显著区域特征. 为探索该省“双碳”目标的实现路径，研究构建基于扩展STIRPAT模型的碳排放预测体系，综合人口、经济、能源、产业和技术等多维因素，通过6种发展情景模拟2023~2035年碳排放演变路径. 结果表明：①驱动因素中，第二产业产值占比对碳排放的促进作用最为显著（弹性系数为0.348），煤炭消费占比与富裕度次之；一次电占比提升则呈现显著抑制作用（弹性系数为-0.297）. ②情景模拟显示绿色发展情景通过能源结构清洁化与产业低碳化转型，可使2035年碳排放量较基准年下降20.1%；低增长-节约型情景通过强化技术赋能与产业结构转型加速，使碳排放量进一步降至3 336.91万t，降幅达31.5%. ③云南省实现碳达峰需以能源结构清洁化、产业低碳化为核心路径. 建议依托水电、风电等清洁能源优势，推动高耗能产业转型升级，并通过提升数字孪生技术的应用和生态碳汇能力，构建“双碳”目标下的可持续发展模式. |
| 英文摘要 |
| As one of China's provinces with the highest proportion of clean energy， Yunnan exhibits distinctive regional characteristics in its carbon emission driving mechanisms and decarbonization pathways. To explore implementation paths for achieving the “Dual Carbon” goals， this study establishes a carbon emission forecasting system based on an extended STIRPAT model， integrating multidimensional factors including population， economy， energy， industry， and technology. Six development scenarios were simulated to project carbon emission trajectories from 2023 to 2035. Key findings include： ① Among driving factors， the proportion of secondary industry output demonstrated the most significant promoting effect on emissions （the elasticity coefficient was 0.348）， followed by coal consumption share and degree of prosperity. Conversely， increasing the proportion of primary electricity showed notable inhibitory impacts （the elasticity coefficient was -0.297）. ② Scenario simulations revealed that the Green Development Scenario， through energy structure decarbonization and industrial low-carbon transition， could reduce 2035 emissions by 20.1% compared to the baseline year. The Low-growth Conservation Scenario， enhanced by technological empowerment and accelerated industrial structural transformation， further decreased emissions to 33.369 1 million tons， achieving a 31.5% reduction. ③ Achieving carbon peaking in Yunnan requires prioritizing clean energy restructuring and industrial decarbonization. Strategic recommendations emphasize leveraging hydropower and wind energy advantages to upgrade energy-intensive industries， while enhancing digital twin technology applications and ecological carbon sequestration capacity to establish a sustainable development paradigm under the “Dual Carbon” framework. |
