| 全球碳达峰进展评估及驱动因素比较 |
| 摘要点击 701 全文点击 83 投稿时间：2025-03-27 修订日期：2025-05-23 |
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| 中文关键词 碳达峰 LMDI模型 Mann-Kendall检验 Tapio脱钩模型 碳排放驱动因素 国际比较 |
| 英文关键词 carbon peak LMDI model Mann-Kendall test Tapio decoupling model driving factors of carbon emission international comparison |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202503318 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 气候变化挑战日益严峻，开展全球碳达峰进展与驱动因素研究，可以为中国制定科学可行的碳中和战略提供参考. 基于1970~2023年世界银行与国际能源署的数据，采用Mann-Kendall（MK）检验，评估全球218个国家和地区的碳达峰情况，采用Tapio脱钩模型分析中国与6个典型已达峰国家的碳排放与经济发展之间的脱钩关系，并运用LMDI分解法剖析各国碳排放变化的驱动因素. 结果表明：①截至2023年底，全球已有57个国家和地区实现碳达峰，另有33个国家和地区处于平台期，与2019年研究结果相比，碳达峰国家（地区）占比由2019年的19.7%提升至2023年的26.1%，重合度达76.7%；②美国、英国、法国、德国、日本和韩国等已达峰发达国家（地区），均已实现碳排放量与经济发展弱脱钩向强脱钩转变，而中国自2008年后长期处于弱脱钩状态；③正向推动与反向抑制碳排放量增长的最主要驱动因素分别为经济发展效应和能源强度效应，人口规模效应和能源结构效应的影响相对较小，且在不同国家（地区）呈现出差异化的影响. 人口规模效应在日本呈现独特抑制作用，在其他经济体则表现为促进作用；能源结构效应仅在法国与中国呈现促进作用，但在其他经济体均表现为负向抑制作用. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Amid increasingly severe climate change challenges， conducting research on global carbon peaking progress and driving factors can provide references for formulating scientifically feasible carbon neutrality strategies in China. Based on the data from the World Bank and the International Energy Agency for the period of 1970-2023， this study employs the Mann-Kendall （MK） test to assess carbon peaking status across 218 countries and regions. The Tapio decoupling model is used to analyze the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in China and six representative carbon-peaked nations， while the LMDI decomposition method identifies driving factors of emission changes. Key findings revealed that： ① By 2023， 57 countries/regions had achieved carbon peaking with 33 in plateau phases. Compared with the research results in 2019， the proportion of carbon peaking countries/regions increased from 19.7% in 2019 to 26.1% in 2023， reflecting an overlap rate of 76.7%. ②Developed nations/regions like the United States， UK， France， Germany， Japan， and South Korea transitioned from weak to strong decoupling between emissions and economic growth， whereas China remained in weak decoupling since 2008. ③ The primary drivers for promoting and restraining the growth of carbon emissions were respectively identified as the economic development effect and energy intensity effect. Comparatively， the population size effect and energy structure effect demonstrated relatively minor influences， with differentiated manifestations across countries/regions. The population size effect exhibited a unique restraining impact in Japan but showed promoting effects in other economies， while the energy structure effect presented promoting effects only in France and China yet demonstrated negative restraining effects in other economic entities. |
