| 黄土丘陵区土地利用变化情景模拟及生态系统服务响应权衡/协同分析 |
| 摘要点击 1713 全文点击 50 投稿时间：2024-12-23 修订日期：2025-04-26 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用变化 生态系统服务价值（ESV） 情景模拟 PLUS模型 ESTD模型 黄土丘陵区 |
| 英文关键词 land use change ecosystem services value（ESV） scenario simulation PLUS model ESTD model Loess hilly area |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202412241 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 开展土地利用变化及其生态系统服务价值（ESV）的模拟预测研究，是降低国土空间治理成本和生态服务提升辅助决策的重要途径. 基于多源数据支持，以固原市为典型区，采用PLUS模型对黄土丘陵区土地利用变化进行情景模拟预测，采用当量因子法计量ESV对土地利用变化的响应关系，结合ESTD模型对不同情景的ESV响应特征进行权衡分析. 结果表明：①土地利用结构调整的政策效应显著. 1990~2000年以耕地扩张和草地减少为主，2000年后耕地的扩张和陡坡种植现象得以遏制，林地扩张明显，城乡聚落的集聚性有所增强，土地利用格局得以优化. ②ESV总量增加但呈阶段性特征. 1990~2020年ESV总量增加了2.49×108元，但1990~2000年减少，2000年以后稳定增加. 主要ESV贡献地类的位序关系由1990年的草地>耕地>林地>水域调整为2020年的草地>林地>耕地>水域. ③ESV的权衡与协同关系始终存在但主导型有所调整. 2000年之前主要表现为权衡特征，2000年以来协同性逐渐占据优势. ④2030年不同情景下生态系统服务的权衡关系仍然存在，但协同性有了明显提升，从空间争夺的权衡态势转向协同发展. 这种态势在EFS情景下表现尤其明显，今后的发展中应该持续采用生态保护优先的国土空间调控策略. 结果表明在不同情景下生态系统服务价值呈现出具体差异，研究为区域生态保护和土地利用管理提供重要参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The simulation and prediction of land use change and ecosystem services value（ESV）is an important way to reduce the cost of land space governance and increase the improvement of ecological services. Based on the support of multi-source data，taking Guyuan City as a typical area，the PLUS model was used to simulate and predict the land use change in the loess hilly area，the equivalent factor method was used to measure the response relationship of ESV to land use change，and the ESTD model was used to weigh the ESV response characteristics of different scenarios. The results are as follows：① The effect of ecological construction policy on land use adjustment was significant. From 1990 to 2000，cultivated land expansion and grassland reduction were the mainstay，but after 2000，the expansion of cultivated land and steep slope planting were curbed，the expansion of forest land was obvious，the agglomeration of urban and rural settlements was enhanced，and the land use pattern was optimized. ② The total amount of ESV increased by 2.49×108 yuan，which showed that ESV decreased from 1990 to 2000 but increased steadily and gradually after 2000. The four major ESV contributed to the land types，but the order relationship was adjusted from grassland > cultivated land > forest land > water area in 1990 to grassland > forest land > cultivated land > water area in 2020. ③ The land use pattern was gradually optimized，the disorderly expansion of cultivated land and steep slope planting were curbed，the distribution of forest land expanded significantly，and the agglomeration of urban and rural settlements was enhanced. ④ The decreasing and increasing areas of ESV were widely distributed and intermixed. Before 2000，it was mainly manifested in the trade-off relationship between resource competition and ecosystem services，but since 2000，the synergistic relationship has gradually taken advantage，and the ecosystem service function and support function with the consistent ecological function of the regional main body have been enhanced. In the future，the territorial spatial regulation strategy of giving priority to ecological protection should be continuously strengthened. The results show that the value of ecosystem services was different under different scenarios，and this study provides an important reference for regional ecological protection and land use management. |
