| 洞庭湖生态经济区“三生”空间冲突特征与预测 |
| 摘要点击 1810 全文点击 30 投稿时间：2025-02-19 修订日期：2025-05-03 |
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| 中文关键词 “三生”空间 空间冲突 IM模型 PLUS模型 多情景模拟 洞庭湖生态经济区 |
| 英文关键词 “production-living-ecology” space space conflict IM model PLUS model multi-scenario simulation Dongting Lake Eco-economic Zone |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202502145 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 剖析大湖经济区“三生”空间时空演变特征及其未来发展趋势是国土空间规划治理的重要基础，可为构建区域高质量国土空间格局指明方向并提供策略支持. 基于多源指标识别体系刻画2014~2022年洞庭湖生态经济区“三生”空间格局演变特征，通过空间冲突综合指数模型和IM模型测度空间冲突演化特征，利用PLUS模型预测在自然发展、经济优先和生态优先这3类情景下洞庭湖生态经济区2030年“三生”空间格局潜在演化趋势. 结果表明：①洞庭湖生态经济区“三生”空间整体分布格局较为稳定，呈现“三山一水五分田”的特点. 生活空间由城区向外扩张，生产与生态空间频繁转化，生态空间显著缩减. ②“三生”空间冲突格局变化显著，以轻度冲突类型为主，占比达60%，冲突转化多呈现系统倾向性特征，且空间破碎化程度呈升高态势. ③在3类情景模拟下，生产空间向生态空间的“蚕食”现象在自然发展和经济优先2类情景下较为剧烈，仅在生态优先发展情景中有所缓解. 而生活空间则在这3类情景下均呈现出稳步增长的态势. “三生”空间则以轻度冲突类型为主，并呈现由较低冲突等级向较高冲突等级的转化特征. 结果揭示了研究区“三生”空间时空演变的深层次规律，可为研究区国土空间协调发展提供优化策略. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The dissection of the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and future development trends of the "production-living-ecology" space in the Great Lake Economic Zone is a fundamental basis for territorial spatial planning and governance. It can provide strategic support for the orderly utilization, renovation, and restoration of regional territorial space, thereby illuminating the direction for constructing a high-quality regional territorial spatial pattern. In this study, a multi-source indicator identification system was utilized to analyze the evolutionary characteristics of the spatial pattern of "production-living-ecology" space in the Dongting Lake Eco-economic Zone from 2014 to 2022. The spatial conflict comprehensive index model and the IM model were employed to measure the evolutionary characteristics of spatial conflict. Subsequently, the PLUS model was applied to forecast the potential development trends of the spatial pattern of "production-living-ecology" space in the Dongting Lake Eco-economic Zone by 2030 under three scenarios: natural development, economic priority, and ecological priority. The results showed that: ① The "production-living-ecology" space in the Dongting Lake Eco-economic Zone featured a distribution characterized by "three parts mountain, one part water, and five parts farmland." Living space, with the existing urban areas as the central point, continuously expanded linearly outward. There was frequent conversion between production space and ecological space, resulting in a significant reduction of ecological space. Particularly in the northern, western, and southwestern parts of the East Dongting Lake area, as well as in the Hong Lake area, there were clear instances of production space encroaching on ecological space. ② The conflict pattern changes of "production-living-ecology" space in the Dongting Lake Eco-economic Zone were significant. Slight conflicts were the main type of conflicts in the region, which showed a continuous increasing trend, while the number of severe conflict types accounted for the lowest proportion of the total conflict types, showing a trend of rising first and then declining. Concurrently, the systemic tendency was always the main transformation tendency of regional conflict types, with the overall conflict level of the region aggregating towards slight conflicts, and the fragmentation of "production-living-ecology" space landscape exhibited an increasing trend. ③ Under the natural development scenario, economic development priority scenario, and ecological development priority scenario for the Dongting Lake Eco-economic Zone, there were significant spatial concentration changes in the distribution of various types of spatial transformations. The mutual conversion between production space and ecological space primarily occurred in the mountainous forests surrounding the region and in the low-lying river and lake areas. The increase in living space showed little variation among the three scenarios, and its expansion trend was minimally affected by external disturbances. The research results have unveiled the inherent laws governing the temporal and spatial evolution of "production-living-ecology" space in the study area, providing optimization strategies for the coordinated development of territorial space. Recommendations are made to strengthen the regulation of ecological space for its protection and restoration; to safeguard agricultural production space to achieve a dual enhancement of economic and ecological benefits; to enhance the level of intensive use of living space; and to foster green economic development in the region, thereby narrowing the economic development disparity among different areas. |
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