| 河南省水资源与耕地资源承载力协同关联网络及驱动因素 |
| 摘要点击 1587 全文点击 44 投稿时间：2025-02-22 修订日期：2025-05-07 |
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| 中文关键词 水资源 耕地资源 承载力 协同 空间关联网络 驱动因素 |
| 英文关键词 water resources cultivated land resources carrying capacity synergy spatial interaction network driving factors |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202502182 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 河南省农业在维护国家粮食安全中具有举足轻重的战略地位，探讨河南省水资源与耕地资源协同演变及其驱动因素，对于实现农业强国目标意义重大. 以河南省为研究区，构建水资源与耕地资源承载力评价指标体系定量评估承载力水平，采用哈肯模型分析二者协同效应，基于修正引力模型和社会网络分析法揭示协同关联网络特征，并采用地理探测器探讨协同关系的驱动因素. 结果表明：①2005~2023年，河南省水资源承载力指数提高了0.123，由低水平上升为较高水平，耕地资源承载力指数提高0.132，由低承载力提升至高承载力；②2005~2023年，水资源与耕地资源承载力协同度从0.424上升至0.557，由低级协同提升至高级协同；③2005~2023年，水资源与耕地资源承载力协同空间关联网络稳定性和连通性增强，省内各市的中介作用减弱，资源控制权更为分散，网络更加均衡；④人均水资源量、居民消费水平、农电集约度和农村居民人均纯收入是水资源与耕地资源承载力协同效应的核心驱动力，且二者的协同同时受多因素交互作用影响. 研究结果可为河南省水资源与耕地资源协同演进与动态适配提供决策参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Henan Province plays a crucial strategic role in maintaining national food security. Exploring the collaborative evolution of water resources and cultivated land resources, as well as their driving factors, is of significant importance for achieving the goal of building up strength in agriculture. Using Henan Province as the study area, this study constructed an evaluation index system for the carrying capacity of water resources and cultivated land resources based on statistical data from 2005 to 2023. The entropy method was employed to determine the weights of the evaluation indices and quantitatively assess the carrying capacity levels. The Haken model was used to analyze the synergistic effect between the two resources, while a modified gravity model and social network analysis were applied to reveal the characteristics of the synergistic network. Additionally, the GeoDetector was employed to explore the driving factors of the collaborative relationship. The results indicate that: ① From 2005 to 2023, the water resource carrying capacity index of Henan Province increased by 0.123, rising from a low capacity level to a higher level, while the cultivated land resource carrying capacity index increased by 0.132, rising from low to high capacity, with Pingdingshan City still maintaining a general capacity level. ② From 2005 to 2023, the synergistic degree between water resource carrying capacity and cultivated land resource carrying capacity increased from 0.424 to 0.557, rising from low-level synergy to high-level synergy. Except for Pingdingshan City, which was at a medium-level synergy, all regions in the province achieved high-level or above synergy. ③ The synergistic effect between water resource carrying capacity and cultivated land resource carrying capacity in Henan Province had formed a complex, multi-threaded spatial network structure. During the study period, the stability and connectivity of the spatial network improved, with the intermediary roles of cities weakening, resource control becoming more decentralized, and the network becoming more balanced. The connections and interactions between regions became more significant. ④ Cultivated land resource carrying capacity, as a sequence parameter, determined the current level of water resource carrying capacity and dominated the path and direction of their synergy. Per capita water resources, residents' consumption level, agricultural electricity intensity, and per capita net income of rural residents were the core driving forces of the synergy between water and cultivated land resource carrying capacity, which were simultaneously influenced by multiple factors and interactions. The findings provide decision-making references for the collaborative evolution and dynamic adaptation of water and cultivated land resources in Henan Province. |
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