| 海河流域植被时空演化及其对气候变化和人类活动的响应 |
| 摘要点击 1682 全文点击 52 投稿时间：2024-06-30 修订日期：2025-05-12 |
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| 中文关键词 归一化植被指数（NDVI） 气候变化 人类活动 海河流域 时滞效应 |
| 英文关键词 normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) climate change human activities Haihe River Basin time lag effect |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202406289 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 科学认识植被变化时空分布规律，探究植被变化与驱动因素之间分异性响应关系，对区域生态建设具有重要意义. 基于2000~2020年归一化植被指数（NDVI）数据集、气温和降水数据集，采用Sen+MK趋势检验、Hurst指数和偏相关分析等方法研究了海河流域植被时空演变规律及对不同气候因子的时滞效应，结合残差分析探讨了气候变化和人类活动对植被驱动影响机制并量化二者对植被变化相对贡献率. 结果表明：①2000~2020年NDVI上升速率为0.003 26 a-1. 变异系数CV值介于0~1.42之间，均值为0.07，NDVI低波动变化、较低波动变化的区域占比为79.73%，总体稳定性良好. NDVI未来呈上升趋势区域占比为51.11%. ②NDVI对不同气候因子响应滞后期有所差异，气温和降水滞后期分别为3个月和1个月，气温最大偏相关系数为-0.68~0.82，降水最大偏相关系数为0.07~0.92. ③人类活动和气候变化对植被变化的相对贡献率分别为45.69%和54.31%. 研究结果可为海河流域植被恢复及保护工作提供借鉴. |
| 英文摘要 |
| It is of great significance for regional ecological construction to scientifically understand the spatial and temporal distribution of vegetation change and explore the differential response relationship between vegetation change and driving factors. Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data set and temperature and precipitation data set from 2000 to 2020, this study used Sen + MK trend test, Hurst index, and partial correlation analysis to analyze the time-varying law of vegetation in Haihe River Basin and the time-lag effect on different climatic factors. Combined with residual analysis, the influence mechanism of climate change and human activities on vegetation driving was discussed, and the contribution rate of the two to vegetation change was quantified. The results showed that: ① NDVI increased at a rate of 0.003 26 a-1 from 2000 to 2020. The CV value was between 0 and 1.42, with an average of 0.07. The area with low fluctuation and low fluctuation of NDVI accounted for 79.73%, and the overall stability was good. The area with an upward trend of NDVI in the future accounted for 51.11%. ② The lag periods of NDVI response to various climatic factors were different. The lag periods of temperature and precipitation were 3 months and 1 month, respectively, and the maximum partial correlation coefficient of temperature was -0.68 to 0.82. The maximum partial correlation coefficient of precipitation was 0.07 to 0.92. ③ The relative contribution rates of human activities and climate change to vegetation change accounted for 45.69% and 54.31%, respectively. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for vegetation restoration and protection in the Haihe River Basin. |
