| 制造业降碳减污增效的非协调性耦合识别及驱动机制分析 |
| 摘要点击 1736 全文点击 43 投稿时间：2025-03-15 修订日期：2025-04-18 |
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| 中文关键词 降碳效率 减污效率 非协调耦合特征 机制分析 XGBoost-SHAP |
| 英文关键词 carbon reduction efficiency pollution reduction efficiency non-coordinated coupling characteristics mechanism analysis XGBoost-SHAP |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202503171 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 实践中制造业减污降碳的协同效应仍面临显著的非协调性矛盾，剖析强化制造业降碳减污协同增效的动力机制，对协同推进制造业高质量发展具有重要意义. 基于2011~2022年制造业细分行业的面板数据，识别不同行业降碳减污增效非协调耦合的时序演化特点，并通过XGBoost-SHAP模型剖析其动力机制，有利于加快实现“双碳”战略目标. 结果表明：①制造业的降碳效率与减污效率均呈现阶段性提升特征，但行业内部差异逐渐扩大. 其中，降碳效率保持稳步增长，而减污效率提升相对缓慢且面临更大挑战. ②多数制造业行业在降碳减污增效方面维持或改善了低水平非协调耦合状态，体现出相对较好的平衡性与进步特征. 然而，化学纤维、有色金属及黑色金属冶炼和压延加工以及石油煤炭等行业的非协调耦合却显示出上升趋势. ③所有权结构和环境成本是导致制造业降碳减污增效非协调耦合的关键因素，其中所有权结构的影响最为显著. 研发强度表现出较强的负向抑制效应，对协同效率的提升至关重要. ④高研发强度、适当市场竞争和资本配置优化形成的三元协同机制，能有效促进制造业业降碳减污增效的协调耦合发展. 特别是在固定资产密集型行业中，技术水平提升成为突破环境成本约束和克服技术替代阻力的关键. |
| 英文摘要 |
| In practice, the synergistic effect of reducing pollution and carbon emissions in the manufacturing industry still faces significant non-coordinated contradictions. Analyzing and strengthening the driving mechanism of synergistic efficiency in reducing carbon and pollution in the manufacturing industry is of great significance for promoting high-quality development of the manufacturing industry in a coordinated manner. Based on panel data of segmented manufacturing industries from 2011 to 2022, we identify the temporal evolution characteristics of non-coordinated coupling in carbon reduction, pollution reduction, and efficiency improvement in different industries and analyze their dynamic mechanisms through the XGBoost-SHAP model, which is conducive to accelerating the achievement of the "dual carbon" goal in the region. The results indicate that: ① The carbon reduction efficiency and pollution reduction efficiency of the manufacturing industry showed a phased improvement feature, but the differences within the industry were gradually widening. Among them, the carbon reduction efficiency has maintained steady growth, while the improvement of pollution reduction efficiency is relatively slow and faces greater challenges. ② Most manufacturing industries have maintained or improved a low-level non-coordinated coupling state in terms of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, and efficiency improvement, reflecting relatively good balance and progress characteristics. However, the non-coordinated coupling in industries such as chemical fibers, non-ferrous and black metal smelting, and rolling processing, as well as petroleum and coal, were showing an upward trend. ③ Ownership structure and environmental costs were key factors leading to the non-coordinated coupling of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, and efficiency improvement in the manufacturing industry, with the impact of ownership structure being the most significant. Although R&D intensity showed a negative effect, it is crucial for improving efficiency. ④ The tripartite synergy mechanism formed by high R&D intensity, appropriate market competition, and optimized capital allocation can effectively promote the coordinated and coupled development of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, and efficiency improvement in the manufacturing industry. Especially in fixed-asset intensive industries, the improvement of technological level has become the key to breaking through environmental cost constraints and overcoming technological substitution resistance. |
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