| 基于生态系统服务供需与土地利用耦合分析的三峡库区生态管理分区及情景模拟 |
| 摘要点击 427 全文点击 15 投稿时间：2024-12-13 修订日期：2025-03-19 |
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| 中文关键词 供需关系 土地利用程度 耦合模型 生态分区 三峡库区 |
| 英文关键词 supply-demand relationship land use intensity coupling model ecological zoning Three Gorges Reservoir area |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20260231 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 生态管理分区是国土空间治理和优化的重要手段，也是落实区域空间差异化管理和保护的重要前提，对缓解人地冲突和促进自然-社会的可持续发展具有重要意义. 以长江中游关键生态走廊三峡库区为例，综合量化了生态服务供给和需求，通过双变量局部空间自相关模型和耦合协调模型探究生态系统服务供需关系与土地利用程度之间的协调关系，进而划分生态管理分区并模拟2030年两种不同情景下的分区格局变化. 结果表明：①2020年三峡库区的生态系统服务供给与需求受到自然因素和人类活动的双重影响，呈现显著的空间异质性，尤其在重庆主城区，生态系统服务的供需关系严重失衡；②基于生态系统服务供需与土地利用强度的耦合协调分析，将三峡库区划分为生态协调发展区、生态潜力发展区、生态失调风险区和生态严格控制区. 这一分区有助于精准识别不同区域的生态状况，并制定相应的保护与发展策略，推动生态与经济的可持续发展；③未来情景模拟表明，在2030年两种情景下，生态协调发展区的面积均有所增加，特别是在重庆主城区的部分区域. 这预示着都市区内并非完全充满人地冲突，仍存在一定的耦合协调区域. 因此，未来应重点研究都市区内的生态协调性问题，以进一步优化生态与人类活动的关系. 研究结果可为三峡库区生态平衡的维持和区域可持续发展提供科学参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Ecological management zoning is a crucial tool for land use governance and spatial optimization， serving as a foundational strategy for implementing differentiated regional management and protection. It plays a key role in mitigating human-environment conflicts and fostering the sustainable development of both ecological and socio-economic systems. Focusing on the Three Gorges Reservoir area， an essential ecological corridor in the middle Yangtze River Basin， this study quantitatively analyzes the supply and demand of ecosystem services. Using a bivariate local spatial autocorrelation model and a coupling coordination model， the study explores the relationship between ecosystem service supply and demand and the intensity of land use. The study then delineates ecological management zones and simulates changes in zoning patterns under two distinct scenarios for 2030. The results show that： ① In 2020， both natural factors and human activities influenced the supply and demand of ecosystem services in the Three Gorges Reservoir area， resulting in significant spatial heterogeneity. Notably， the main urban area of Chongqing exhibited a severe imbalance in the supply-demand relationship of ecosystem services. ② Based on the coupling coordination analysis of ecosystem service supply-demand and land use intensity， the Three Gorges Reservoir area was categorized into four ecological zones： the ecological coordinated development zone， ecological potential development zone， ecological imbalance risk zone， and ecological strict control zone. This zoning approach aids in accurately identifying the ecological status of different regions and formulating targeted protection and development strategies， thereby promoting the sustainable integration of ecological and economic development. ③ Scenario simulations for 2030 indicated an expansion of the ecological coordinated development zone in both scenarios， particularly in certain areas of the urban core of Chongqing. This suggests that urban areas are not entirely dominated by human-environment conflicts and that regions of ecological coupling coordination still exist. Future research should focus on enhancing ecological coordination within urban areas to further optimize the relationship between ecological conservation and human activities. These findings provide valuable insights for maintaining ecological balance and advancing sustainable development in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. |
