| 基于SD-PLUS-InVEST模型的江西省土地利用与生境质量演变及模拟 |
| 摘要点击 447 全文点击 35 投稿时间：2024-12-26 修订日期：2025-03-30 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用变化 生境质量 SSP-RCP情景 SD-PLUS模型 InVEST模型 江西省 |
| 英文关键词 land use change habitat quality SSP-RCP scenarios SD-PLUS model InVEST model Jiangxi Province |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20260221 |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 窦丽霞 | 江西师范大学地理与环境学院, 南昌 330022
江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室, 南昌 330022 | doulixia24@126.com | | 徐丽婷 | 江西师范大学地理与环境学院, 南昌 330022
江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室, 南昌 330022 | liting.xu@jxnu.edu.cn | | 李文紫怡 | 江西师范大学地理与环境学院, 南昌 330022
江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室, 南昌 330022 | | | 许鑫 | 江西师范大学地理与环境学院, 南昌 330022
江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室, 南昌 330022 | | | 周达宝 | 江西师范大学地理与环境学院, 南昌 330022
江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室, 南昌 330022 | | | 徐羽 | 江西财经大学数字经济学院, 南昌 330013 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 探究土地利用变化对生境质量的影响对于区域生态文明建设具有重要意义. 以江西省为研究区，基于2000年、2010年和2020年3期土地利用数据，分析土地利用变化特征. 结合CMIP6中的3种典型情景与SD-PLUS模型，模拟2040年和2060年土地利用变化格局，运用InVEST模型评估生境质量演变. 结果表明：①2000~2020年间，江西省土地利用变化呈“先快后缓”的特征，前10 a土地转移量为后10 a的4.67倍. 土地利用变化主要表现为水田、旱地、有林地和疏林地间的相互转换，以及向城镇用地与其他建设用地的转移. ②2000~2020年间，生境质量均值同比下降3.57%，整体以中、良好和优等级为主，而差和较差等级主要集中于城市建成区，并沿交通干线呈“大”字形扩散. ③未来情景表明，耕地持续缩减，其他建设用地不断增加. 其中，SSP119情景下，林地显著增加，生境质量最高；SSP245情景下，土地利用较为均衡，生境质量次之；SSP585情景下，建设用地扩张最为显著，生境质量最低. ④生境质量的提升主要受有林地和疏林地增加的推动，而建设用地的扩张及林地转耕地是导致生境质量下降的主要因素. 研究结果可为江西省生态治理和可持续发展提供科学依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The impact of land use change on habitat quality is of great significance for advancing regional ecological civilization construction. In this study， Jiangxi Province， a national ecological civilization pilot zone， was selected as the study area. Land use data from 2000， 2010， and 2020 were used to analyze the characteristics of land use changes. Three representative scenarios from CMIP6， namely SSP119， SSP245， and SSP585， were adopted to simulate the patterns of land use change in 2040 and 2060 using the SD-PLUS model. Subsequently， the variations of habitat quality were assessed using the InVEST model. The results showed that： ① Between 2000 and 2020， land use change in Jiangxi Province exhibited a pattern of “rapid at first， then slowing down，” with land conversion rate in the first decade being 4.67 times that in the second decade. The primary transitions included mutual conversions among paddy field， dryland， forested land， and sparse forest land， as well as the transfer to urban land and other construction land. ② During this period， the mean habitat quality decreased by 3.57%， with medium， good， and excellent quality levels predominating. In contrast， poor and relatively poor levels were primarily concentrated in urban built-up areas and exhibited a “large-character” diffusion pattern along major transportation corridors. ③ Future scenarios indicated a continued reduction in cultivated land and an expansion of construction land. Under SSP119， forest land was significantly increased， resulting in the highest habitat quality. Under SSP245， a more balanced land-use pattern was observed， with moderate habitat quality. Under SSP585， the most pronounced expansion of construction land occurred， leading to the lowest habitat quality. ④ The improvement in habitat quality was primarily driven by the increase in forested land and sparse forest land. Conversely， the expansion of construction land and the conversion of forest land to cultivated land were the main factors contributing to the decline in habitat quality. These findings provide a scientific basis for ecological governance and sustainable development in Jiangxi Province. |
