| 基于PLUS-InVEST-Geodetector模型的环太湖城市群土地利用多情景模拟与碳储量评估 |
| 摘要点击 452 全文点击 17 投稿时间：2024-12-03 修订日期：2025-04-06 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用 碳储量 多情景模拟 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 环太湖城市群 |
| 英文关键词 land use carbon stock multi-scenario modeling PLUS model InVEST model urban agglomeration around Taihu Lake |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.20260219 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 探究环太湖城市群土地利用时空演变对碳储量的影响，对区域生态系统碳库管理与实现区域低碳高质量发展具有重要意义. 运用PLUS-InVEST-Geodetector模型，探讨环太湖城市群2000~2020年土地利用与碳储量时空格局及其差异特征，预测并模拟2030年自然发展、城市发展和生态保护情景下土地利用与碳储量空间格局分布特征，揭示影响碳储量变化归因. 结果表明：①2000~2020年，环太湖城市群耕地面积减少26.3%，建设用地面积增加147.5%，主要驱动因子为人口数量、高程和至二级道路的相对距离；②环太湖城市群碳储量呈西南高、东北低的空间分布特征，总体下降8.17%，其中耕地和林地损失分别为48.84 Mt和5.36 Mt，土地利用类型转变是碳储量降低的主要原因. ③基于2030年3种情景比较，生态保护情景具有更高的碳储量（469.865 Mt）和较低的碳损失（-11.545 Mt）. 碳储量高值区主要分布在太湖西部和南部，低值区则集中于东部和北部地区. ④归因分析表明，自然环境因子对碳储量的影响显著高于社会经济因子. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Exploring the impacts of spatial and temporal land use evolution on carbon stock in the urban agglomeration around Taihu Lake is of great significance for the management of regional ecosystem carbon pools and the realization of regional low-carbon and high-quality development. Using the PLUS-InVEST-Geodetector model， we explored the spatial and temporal patterns of land use and carbon stock and their different characteristics from 2000 to 2020； predicted and simulated the distribution characteristics of spatial patterns of land use and carbon stock under the scenarios of natural development， urban development， and ecological protection in 2030； and revealed the reasons for the impacts on the changes of carbon stock. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020， the cultivated land area of the urban agglomeration around Taihu Lake decreased by 26.3%， and the built-up land area increased by 147.5%， with the main driving factors being the population size， elevation， and the relative distance to secondary roads. ② The carbon stock in the urban agglomeration around Taihu Lake showed a spatial distribution characteristic of high in the southwest and low in the northeast， with an overall decrease of 8.17%， in which cropland and forest land lost 48.84 and 5.36 Mt， respectively. The shift in land use type was the main reason for the decrease in carbon stock. ③ Based on the comparison of the three scenarios in 2030， the ecological protection scenario had higher carbon stock （469.865 Mt） and lower carbon loss （-11.545 Mt）. The high carbon stock areas were mainly distributed in the western and southern parts of Taihu Lake， while the low value areas were concentrated in the eastern and northern parts. ④ The attribution analysis showed that the natural environmental factors had a significantly higher influence on carbon stock than the socioeconomic factors. |
